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Mustang Women's

Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears23232323
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks318318318318
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins28282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 130303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2301301301301
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 231313131

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears23232323
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks318318318318
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins28282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 130303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2301301301301
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 231313131

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1019.4 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From WNW (293°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover64% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1019.4 hPa Rain0.09 in Snow0.50 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn · N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cal Poly: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.49 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Poly by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Cal Poly, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →