University of California at Santa Barbara '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.27 (fleet 1.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–9 (10%) as crew 3–10 (23%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 0–4 | 3–10 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 4–19 against 7.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-19 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.48 | 0.03 | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.45 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2021-11-06 | Gaucho Fall Team Race | crew | 1.55 | 0.79 | 3–10 | 3.8 | −0.76 | 0.4 | 91% |
| 2021-10-31 | Women's PCC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.12 | -1.88 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 14.7 | 1.26 |
| PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.3 | 2.08 |
| Mustang Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.8 | 2.95 |
| Jeff Simon Women's 2 Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 2.63 |
| Jeff Simon Women's 1 Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 1.66 |
| Bryson Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.5 | 3.17 |
| 2022 Womens PCCs Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.8 | 1.05 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's PCC Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 4 | 0% | — |
| Women's PCC Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.1 | — |
| Gaucho Fall Team Race | Crew | TR | 13 | 23% | — |
| Fall PCC - Women’s Div Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 1.62 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
