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PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,936 team race matches sailed before 2022-02-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 21 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.344 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.48: a typical event, more orderly than 46% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		110.57
school +0.43, home +0.36		Michelle Lahrkamp / Anaclare Sole 3.60 5–0
Hannah Freeman / Sammy Pickell 3.04 5–0
Stephanie Houck / Patricia Gerli 3.14 3–0
Stephanie Houck / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.14 3–0
Michelle Lahrkamp / Grace Austin 3.50 1–0
Hannah Freeman / Patricia Gerli 3.05 1–0		100%6–0 (100%)+0.0
2University of Hawaii
Rainbows		25.84Mercy Tangredi / Kelsie Grant 2.01 4–1
Hayden Lahr / Jemma Baird 1.79 3–1
Morgan Carew / Chloe Long 2.05 3–0
Vivian Bonsager / Chloe Long 1–1
Mercy Tangredi / Vivian Bonsager 2.03 1–0
Morgan Carew / Jemma Baird 2.06 1–0
Hayden Lahr / Vivian Bonsager 1.82 1–0
Morgan Carew / Vivian Bonsager 2.07 1–0		77%5–1 (83%)+0.4
3University of Washington
Huskies		33.89
school −0.12		Erin Pamplin / Brianne Abbott-Rogge
Emily Smith / Maya Outhred
Julia Sherry / Amelia Kau		47%4–2 (67%)+1.2
4University of California at Berkeley
Bears		43.61Victoria Chen / Iesha Carter
Kingsley Ehrich / Lindsea Hayes 1.55
Katherine Olsen / Mackenzie Berwick 1.59		42%3–3 (50%)+0.5
5University of California at San Diego
Tritons		71.90Svenja Leonard / Elizaveta Pertseva 1.19
Amanda Brooks / Nina Folz 1–3
Mckenna Roonan / Jessica Dally 0.16 2–2
Audra Spokas-Jaros / Annaclaire Rogness 1–3		12%2–4 (33%)+1.3
6University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		53.34
school −0.15		Molly Coghlin / Kaitlin Chan 1.69
Harriet Jessup / Leela Barlow 1.48
Lekha Sapers / Ruiqi Yang		37%1–5 (17%)−1.2
7University of California at Los Angeles
Bruins		63.19
school −0.44		Marianna Shand / Emma Worthington 2.04
Mary Jane Howland / Teresa Dang 1.29
Tess Mcmullin / Fadia Nitrosso		35%0–6 (0%)−2.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University10.5713.576–06.0≥+3.000.099%
2University of Hawaii5.847.955–14.6+2.100.468%
3University of Washington3.895.404–22.8+1.501.225%
5University of California at San Diego1.903.392–40.7+1.491.515%
4University of California at Berkeley3.614.103–32.5+0.490.253%
6University of California at Santa Barbara3.341.891–52.2−1.451.297%
7University of California at Los Angeles3.190.190–62.1≤−3.004.3>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Hannah FreemanStanford University3.046.046–06.0≥+3.000.099%
Hayden LahrUniversity of Hawaii1.793.664–13.8+1.870.378%
Svenja LeonardUniversity of California at San Diego1.192.682–40.7+1.491.515%
Audra Spokas-JarosUniversity of California at San Diego0.401.281–30.5+0.890.343%
Amanda BrooksUniversity of California at San Diego0.351.201–30.5+0.840.344%
Victoria ChenUniversity of California at Berkeley0.310.803–32.5+0.490.253%
Katherine OlsenUniversity of California at Berkeley1.592.083–32.5+0.490.253%
Harriet JessupUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.480.031–52.2−1.451.297%
Tess McmullinUniversity of California at Los Angeles0.14-2.860–62.1≤−3.004.3>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Los Angeles100%
12University of HawaiiUniversity of California at San Diego99%
13University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Santa Barbara58%
14Stanford UniversityUniversity of Washington100%
15University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Los Angeles94%
16University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at San Diego82%
17University of WashingtonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara65%
18Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii99%
19University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Los Angeles60%
110University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at Santa Barbara19%upset
111University of HawaiiUniversity of Washington87%
112Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
113University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Los Angeles54%
114University of WashingtonUniversity of California at San Diego85%
115University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Berkeley91%
116Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara100%
117University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at Los Angeles19%upset
118University of WashingtonUniversity of California at Berkeley55%
119University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Santa Barbara92%
120Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at San Diego100%
121University of WashingtonUniversity of California at Los Angeles65%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalRainbowsHuskiesBearsTritonsGauchosBruins
Stanford University Cardinal6–0✕WWWWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows5–1L✕WWWWW
University of Washington Huskies4–2LL✕WWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears3–3LLL✕WWW
University of California at San Diego Tritons2–4LLLL✕WW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1–5LLLLL✕W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins0–6LLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4-5-6
2 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-5-6
3 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
4 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 4-5-6
5 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-6 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-4-5
6 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
7 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
8 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
9 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-5-6
10 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-4-6
11 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 4-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
13 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-5-6
14 University of Washington Huskies 2-3-5 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-4-6
15 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
17 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-2-5 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-4-6
18 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
19 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-4-6
20 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
21 University of Washington Huskies 2-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-5-6

Conditions — 02/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.7 kn
avg  ·  max 4.7 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From NNE (24°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1020.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →