University of California at Berkeley '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.51 (fleet 2.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–14 (39%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 5–7 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 9–14 against 8.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-19 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.55 | 2.04 | 3–3 | 2.5 | +0.49 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 2022-02-12 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.51 | 1.20 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2021-10-31 | Women's PCC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.36 | 2.28 | 2–2 | 1.6 | +0.92 | 0.2 | 60% |
| 2020-02-08 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.25 | 0.97 | 2–5 | 2.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| (Day 2) Bryson Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 0.91 |
| Charley Dole PCCSC Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 0.17 |
| Bryson Women's Fleet Race (Day 1) Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.3 | 0.95 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Women's Varsity Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 1.7 | 2.73 |
| (Day 1) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.8 | 1.55 |
| (Day 2) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 1.51 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| North Designate/St. Francis | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.2 | 1.23 |
| Jeff Simon Women's 2 Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 1.79 |
| Jeff Simon Women's 1 Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 1.03 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Bryson Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | 1.36 |
| 2022 Womens PCCs Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.2 | 2.39 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's PCC Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 4 | 50% | — |
| Women's PCC Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.9 | 0.18 |
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.2 | 1.40 |
| Stoney Burke Women's Varsity Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.3 | 0.80 |
| Fall PCC - Women’s Div Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | -0.06 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 1.24 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 1.56 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 0.59 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's PCCs Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | 1.43 |
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.7 | 1.64 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.2 | 1.97 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.1 | 2.10 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Kingsley Ehrich |  Martin County High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
