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(Day 2) Bryson Women's Fleet Race

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 1 3 1 1 6 Ellie Harned '26
Patricia Gerli '23
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 3 1 2 4 10 Molly Coghlin '25
Kaitlin Chan '23
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 4 5 3 3 15 Vivian Bonsager '25
Sophia Shaeffer '25
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 6 4 5 2 17 Mercy Tangredi '25
Taylor Ledgerwood '23
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 2 2 8 6 18 Sophie Fisher '26
Abigail Tindall '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 5 9 4 5 23 Kingsley Ehrich '23
Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 13 6 10 7 36 Elizabeth Fourney '26
Leela Barlow '23
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 7 10 12 8 37 Erin Pamplin '24
Julia Oglevie '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 12 8 7 10 37 Florence Duff '25
Chloe Schofield '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 8 14 6 9 37 Victoria Chen '25
Lindsea Hayes '22
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons A 9 7 9 13 38 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
Cassidy Murray '24
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 10 12 11 11 44 Macy Rowe '23
Alyssa Shadduck '23
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 11 11 13 12 47 Sarah Kahle '22 [1-4]
Amelia Kau '23 [1-3]
Maya Outhred '24 [4]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons B 14 13 14 15 56 Amanda Brooks '23 [1-3]
Elizaveta Pertseva '23 [4]
Nina Folz '23 [1-3]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers B 15 16 15 14 60 Julia Mast '23
Raven Frisell '25
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers A 16 15 16 16 63 Cianna Coyle '26
Safari Frisell '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears15151515
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers17171717
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs18181818
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows12121212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal16161616
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons14141414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos13131313
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies11111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears7777
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers9999
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs10101010
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows4444
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal8888
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons6666
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos5555
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies3333

Conditions — 02/19/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.1 kn
avg  ·  max 3.7 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From NNE (16°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1019.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →