University of California at Santa Barbara '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 (fleet 2.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–19 (39%) as crew 7–6 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 11–10 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 0–4 | 7–6 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (44 matches) the record is 19–25 against 22.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-14 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.98 | 3.38 | 6–6 | 4.2 | +1.40 | 1.8 | 13% |
| 2023-02-11 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 2.04 | 0.83 | 5–4 | 6.8 | −1.21 | 1.6 | 98% |
| 2022-02-19 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.69 | 0.24 | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.45 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2021-11-06 | Gaucho Fall Team Race | crew | 2.84 | 2.50 | 7–6 | 7.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2021-10-31 | Women's PCC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.32 | -1.68 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Molly Coghlin |  University of Rhode Island |
'25 |
| ISSA | Molly Coghlin |  North Kingstown High School |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
