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Jeff Simon Women's 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 7 13 20
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 1 11 15 26
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 2 22 7 29
4 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses 10 27 37
5 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 3 25 14 39
6 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Lady Bruins 21 21 42
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears 21 21 42
8 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Women 38 28 66
9 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 33 37 70
10 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 34 38 72
11 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 42 43 85
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils140140140140
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Mama Bears23232323
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs3333
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine35353535
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Lady Bruins28282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses30303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Women301301301301
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 232323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 369696969
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs33333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils140140140140
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Mama Bears23232323
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs3333
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine35353535
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Lady Bruins28282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses30303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Women301301301301
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 232323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 369696969
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs33333333

Conditions — 01/29/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 35%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From W (280°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine6.9 hrs Humidity35% Pressure1019.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.26 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →