University of California at San Diego '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.90 (fleet 1.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–7 (46%) as crew 1–8 (11%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 6–7 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | — | 1–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 7–15 against 5.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-19 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.19 | 2.68 | 2–4 | 0.7 | +1.49 | 1.5 | 15% |
| 2022-02-12 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.09 | 1.01 | 4–3 | 4.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2021-04-25 | PCCSC Team Race Championship | crew | 1.78 | 2.14 | 1–8 | 0.8 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 57% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.3 | 1.75 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.0 | 0.54 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.8 | 0.63 |
| Mustang Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.5 | 2.72 |
| Jeff Simon Women's 2 Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.8 | 1.38 |
| Jeff Simon Women's 1 Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.5 | 2.95 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Bryson Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 1.60 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 1.15 |
| 2022 Womens PCCs Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 0.53 |
| College Sailing Regional Teams Nat'l Invitational | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.0 | 1.62 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh Soph | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.4 | 1.50 |
| Stoney Burke Women's Varsity Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.0 | 1.74 |
| Fall PCC - Women’s Div Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.0 | 1.76 |
| 2021 Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 9.0 | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | — |
| PCCSC Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
