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PCCSC South Designate

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 27 15 42
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 23 34 57
3 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 69 36 105
4 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 79 31 110
5 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 30 87 117
6 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 64 73 137
7 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 1 62 89 151
8 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 95 71 166
9 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 85 128 213
10 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 148 71 219
11 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 2 137 91 228
12 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 117 113 230
13 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 127 111 238
14 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 106 141 247
15 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 157 146 303
16 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 177 133 310
17 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 131 194 325
18 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 187 170 357
19 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 163 197 360
20 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 200 181 381
21 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 172 250 422
22 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 200 227 427
23 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 221 223 444
24 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 236 227 463
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 4 1 1 6 2 4 1 1 1 23 Justin Lim '23
Mathew Hogan '21
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4 1 4 2 3 1 1 5 2 4 27 Bastien Rasse '23
Devon Stapleton '22
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 2 2 3 7 3 2 3 3 2 30 Joseph Hou '22 [1-10]
Ariana Gabier '24 [1-4]
Ryan Mccarthy '23 [5-8]
Rachel Leipold '22 [9-10]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 1 1 10 11 5 2 11 8 7 4 3 62 Blake Buckner '24
Charlotte Hinman '22
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 5 6 3 4 1 5 7 2 OCS 6 64 Lukas Kraak '23
Sydney Aguirre '22
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 14 5 5 8 4 7 3 4 8 11 69 Ryan Downey '25 [1-10]
Charles Bedford '24 [1-6]
Cyrus Khaleeli '24 [7-10]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 10 3 6 11 12 10 9 8 5 5 79 Gideon Burnes Heath '23
Mary Jane Howland '22
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 8 7 9 10 5 9 13 10 6 8 85 Nicholas Dorn '22
Megan Saenz '22
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 12 8 7 6 8 13 5 13 9 14 95 Aragorn Crozier '24 [1-10]
Maya Outhred '24 [1-4, 7-10]
Kaia Armas '25 [5-6]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 9 OCS 8 15 13 4 10 6 7 9 106 Kai Ponting '23
Maura Darby '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 13 9 12 14 11 14 12 11 11 10 117 Michael Mcculloch '25 [1-10]
Iesha Carter '23 [1-4]
Marlena Tavernier-Fine '22 [5-10]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 18 15 10 9 9 8 18 18 10 12 127 David Spector '25
Linnea Jackson '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 6 16 13 7 14 17 11 14 16 17 131 Emily Avey '25
John Kish '23
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 2 7 11 DNF DNS 10 6 6 RAF 15 7 137 Francesco Nicoli '22 [1-6, 8, 10]
Fabio Schettino '23 [7, 9]
Beverly Schimmel '25 [1-6]
Francesco Nicoli '22 [7, 9]
Fabio Schettino '23 [8, 10]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 19 13 18 12 17 19 14 9 14 13 148 Marcus Leitner '22
Kathryn Lewis '22
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 17 12 21 13 15 15 17 16 12 19 157 Aidan Boylan '24 [1-10]
Terry Yao '23 [1-4]
Zacarias Valencia '24 [5-10]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 16 17 19 16 19 20 15 12 13 16 163 Mckenna Roonan '21
Acadia Biener '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 11 20 17 18 16 21 16 17 18 18 172 Sadie Hoberman '25 [1-10]
Natalie Tricarico '25 [1-6]
Michael Rodi '22 [7-10]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 20 14 14 19 20 16 DNS 15 19 15 177 Devon Kurisu '23
Emily Ward '23
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 15 19 20 17 18 18 19 19 20 22 187 Kaylena Mann '22
Olivia Feito '22
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 21 21 15 23 21 12 21 22 21 23 200 Antoine Kepczyk '22 [1-10]
Rhea Abbott '23 [1-6]
John Scranton '22 [7-10]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 23 18 16 20 22 22 22 20 17 20 200 Tyler Hoang '25
Brandon Iorlano '23
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 24 22 23 21 23 24 20 21 22 21 221 Declan Dury '22
Joseph Silveira '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 22 23 22 22 24 23 DNS DNS DNS DNS 236 Jessica Dally '22
Madison Greenwald '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 15 Samuel Patton '22 [1-10]
Trey Summers '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Kelsie Grant '23 [5-8]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 6 2 3 1 6 5 1 1 4 2 31 Marianna Shand '24 [1-10]
Teresa Dang '24 [1-4, 7-10]
Jee Keat Wah '24 [5-6]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 4 2 3 4 2 2 7 3 3 34 Grace Austin '24
Laurel Foster '22
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 3 7 4 2 3 6 2 2 5 36 Clay Myers '25
Etienne Quille '25
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 5 7 5 5 9 8 5 5 12 10 71 Thomas Pentimonti '24
Duncan Weiner '24
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 11 6 12 7 3 4 8 9 5 6 71 Blake Roberts '25
Travis Ackermann '23
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 10 10 8 8 9 4 4 9 8 73 Harriet Jessup '22
Kaitlin Chan '23
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 8 9 8 10 12 11 7 6 7 9 87 Edward Ansart '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Diya Correa '22 [3-4, 7-10]
John Hutchison '23 [1-2, 5-8]
Eleanor Desai '23 [3-4, 9-10]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 1 12 11 4 12 11 10 9 8 8 4 89 Ian Collignon '23
Morgan Burton '23
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 2 7 16 11 6 5 7 12 14 6 7 91 Christopher Hopkins '25 [1-10]
Liza Veselova '23 [1-6]
Adeline Spencer '25 [7-10]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 13 14 6 16 10 6 10 11 13 12 111 Zack Taylor '23 [1-10]
Tess Mcmullin '22 [1-6]
Sarah Enayati '22 [7-10]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 10 8 9 9 13 14 13 12 14 11 113 Adrien Stroumza '23 [1-6]
Beck Boyea '24 [7-10]
Sophia Jacobs '23 [1-6]
Adrien Stroumza '23 [7-10]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 14 5 14 13 14 16 17 10 11 14 128 Svenja Leonard '24
Elizaveta Pertseva '23
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 15 13 13 11 15 13 14 16 10 13 133 Dane Williams '23
Riley Wille '22
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 9 12 16 15 18 15 11 13 16 16 141 Florence Duff '25 [1-10]
Chloe Schofield '23 [1-8]
Colin Thompson '25 [9-10]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 18 18 17 14 7 12 15 15 15 15 146 Mitchell Powers '25 [1-10]
Sofiya Gaffke '22 [1-6]
Hayden Shaw '25 [7-10]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 16 15 18 17 17 17 18 18 17 17 170 Rob Reigelman '23
Brooke Rodgers '23
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 22 17 15 19 16 18 16 19 19 20 181 Caden Ofarrell '23
Luna Fernandez '23
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 20 19 19 21 19 20 19 20 18 19 194 Katy Priest '22
Kathryn Lance '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 17 22 20 22 20 19 22 17 20 18 197 Jonathan Hickey '23
Nicholas Hackenberg '22
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 23 20 23 20 21 DNS 20 21 DNS DNS 223 Kitana Barrus '22
Nicholas Pira '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 19 21 21 23 22 21 DNS DNS DNS DNS 227 Ian Johnston '25
Rylee Hickey '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 21 23 22 18 DNF DNS 21 22 DNS DNS 227 Gage Reitzel '22 [1-10]
Noah Lovelace '25 [1-6]
Ian Fanning '22 [7-10]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 250 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.280+0.28
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 139393939393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 240404040404040404040
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 3140140140140140140140140140140
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears23232323232323232323
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers101101101101101101101101101101
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs3333333333
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 19999999999
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2109109109109109109109109109109
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 18888888888
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows36363636363636363636
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks74747474747474747474
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs 115151515151515151515
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs 216161616161616161616
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans37373737373737373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal21212121212121212121
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 127272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 228282828282828282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 129292929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 230303030303030303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3291291291291291291291291291291
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos31313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs33333333333333333333
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies82828282828282828282

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 139393939393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 240404040404040404040
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 3140140140140140140140140140140
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears23232323232323232323
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers101101101101101101101101101101
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs3333333333
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 19999999999
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2109109109109109109109109109109
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 18888888888
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows36363636363636363636
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks74747474747474747474
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs 115151515151515151515
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs 216161616161616161616
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans37373737373737373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal21212121212121212121
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 127272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 228282828282828282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 129292929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 230303030303030303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3291291291291291291291291291291
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos31313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs33333333333333333333
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies82828282828282828282
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Aidan Boylan '24 [1-10] Terry Yao '23 [1-4]
Zacarias Valencia '24 [5-10]
Sun Devils 1 Mitchell Powers '25 [1-10] Sofiya Gaffke '22 [1-6]
Hayden Shaw '25 [7-10]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Antoine Kepczyk '22 [1-10] Rhea Abbott '23 [1-6]
John Scranton '22 [7-10]
Sun Devils 2 Gage Reitzel '22 [1-10] Noah Lovelace '25 [1-6]
Ian Fanning '22 [7-10]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sadie Hoberman '25 [1-10] Natalie Tricarico '25 [1-6]
Michael Rodi '22 [7-10]
Sun Devils 3 No Show No Show
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Kai Ponting '23 Maura Darby '25
Mustangs Florence Duff '25 [1-10] Chloe Schofield '23 [1-8]
Colin Thompson '25 [9-10]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Ryan Downey '25 [1-10] Charles Bedford '24 [1-6]
Cyrus Khaleeli '24 [7-10]
Keelhaulers Clay Myers '25 Etienne Quille '25
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Declan Dury '22 Joseph Silveira '24
Dolphins 1 Kitana Barrus '22 Nicholas Pira '24
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Kaylena Mann '22 Olivia Feito '22
Dolphins 2 Rob Reigelman '23 Brooke Rodgers '23
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Devon Kurisu '23 Emily Ward '23
49ers 1 Dane Williams '23 Riley Wille '22
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Tyler Hoang '25 Brandon Iorlano '23
49ers 2 Caden Ofarrell '23 Luna Fernandez '23
San Diego State University San Diego State University Blake Buckner '24 Charlotte Hinman '22
Aztecs 1 Ian Collignon '23 Morgan Burton '23
San Diego State University San Diego State University Francesco Nicoli '22 [1-6, 8, 10]
Fabio Schettino '23 [7, 9]		 Beverly Schimmel '25 [1-6]
Francesco Nicoli '22 [7, 9]
Fabio Schettino '23 [8, 10]
Aztecs 2 Christopher Hopkins '25 [1-10] Liza Veselova '23 [1-6]
Adeline Spencer '25 [7-10]
Stanford University Stanford University Justin Lim '23 Mathew Hogan '21
Cardinal Grace Austin '24 Laurel Foster '22
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Michael Mcculloch '25 [1-10] Iesha Carter '23 [1-4]
Marlena Tavernier-Fine '22 [5-10]
Bears Adrien Stroumza '23 [1-6]
Beck Boyea '24 [7-10]		 Sophia Jacobs '23 [1-6]
Adrien Stroumza '23 [7-10]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Gideon Burnes Heath '23 Mary Jane Howland '22
Bruins 1 Marianna Shand '24 [1-10] Teresa Dang '24 [1-4, 7-10]
Jee Keat Wah '24 [5-6]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles David Spector '25 Linnea Jackson '25
Bruins 2 Zack Taylor '23 [1-10] Tess Mcmullin '22 [1-6]
Sarah Enayati '22 [7-10]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Nicholas Dorn '22 Megan Saenz '22
Tritons 1 Svenja Leonard '24 Elizaveta Pertseva '23
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Mckenna Roonan '21 Acadia Biener '25
Tritons 2 Jonathan Hickey '23 Nicholas Hackenberg '22
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Jessica Dally '22 Madison Greenwald '23
Tritons 3 Ian Johnston '25 Rylee Hickey '25
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Lukas Kraak '23 Sydney Aguirre '22
Gauchos Harriet Jessup '22 Kaitlin Chan '23
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Marcus Leitner '22 Kathryn Lewis '22
Banana Slugs Blake Roberts '25 Travis Ackermann '23
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Bastien Rasse '23 Devon Stapleton '22
Rainbows Samuel Patton '22 [1-10] Trey Summers '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Kelsie Grant '23 [5-8]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Emily Avey '25 John Kish '23
Ducks Katy Priest '22 Kathryn Lance '24
University of Southern California University of Southern California Joseph Hou '22 [1-10] Ariana Gabier '24 [1-4]
Ryan Mccarthy '23 [5-8]
Rachel Leipold '22 [9-10]
Trojans Edward Ansart '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Diya Correa '22 [3-4, 7-10]		 John Hutchison '23 [1-2, 5-8]
Eleanor Desai '23 [3-4, 9-10]
University of Washington University of Washington Aragorn Crozier '24 [1-10] Maya Outhred '24 [1-4, 7-10]
Kaia Armas '25 [5-6]
Huskies Thomas Pentimonti '24 Duncan Weiner '24

Conditions — 03/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From SW (227°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn · W 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southern Cal: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.26)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.24
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.06)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.26 means a rating gap counts about 23% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →