University of Hawaii '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.59 (fleet 3.58) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–13 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 8–6 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 10–13 against 10.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-08 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.64 | 2.38 | 8–6 | 8.3 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2021-04-25 | PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.60 | 0.88 | 2–7 | 2.6 | −0.71 | 0.3 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Open Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 3.41 |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.5 | 5.19 |
| Mark Healy PCCSC Open Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.9 | 4.19 |
| North Designate/St. Francis | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 4.53 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 3.9 | — |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.5 | 3.49 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 2.42 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 3.69 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 5.3 | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 2.05 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Crew | A | 2 | 7.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
