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PCCSC South Designate — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2022-W11). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,191 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Division A  24 boats · 10 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Justin Lim '23 Stanford University 10/10 382* 498 +115 96th → 99th 4.8 6% 2.3 / 4.9 406*
2 Bastien Rasse '23 University of Hawaii 10/10 380* 465 +85 95th → 99th 2.9 11% 2.7 / 4.9 376*
3 Joseph Hou '22 University of Southern California 10/10 412* 442 +30 98th → 99th 0.4 27% 3.0 / 4.2 414*
4 Blake Buckner '24 San Diego State University Aztecs 1 10/10 266* 284 +18 79th → 81st 0.2 28% 6.2 / 8.2 266*
5 Lukas Kraak '23 University of California at Santa Barbara 10/10 377* 373 -4 95th → 95th 0.0 81% 6.4 / 4.9 373*
6 Ryan Downey '25 California Maritime Academy 10/10 234* 268 +34 71st → 79th 0.6 24% 6.9 / 9.2 241*
7 Gideon Burnes Heath '23 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 10/10 251* 259 +7 76th → 77th 0.0 42% 7.9 / 8.6 254*
8 Nicholas Dorn '22 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 10/10 283* 234 -48 81st → 71st 1.5 67% 8.5 / 7.6 280*
9 Aragorn Crozier '24 University of Washington 10/10 188* 200 +12 62nd → 65th 0.1 36% 9.5 / 10.7 192*
10 Kai Ponting '23 Cal Poly University S.L.O. 10/10 243* 214 -29 73rd → 68th 0.4 77% 10.6 / 8.8 242*
11 Michael Mcculloch '25 University of California at Berkeley 10/10 179* 166 -13 60th → 57th 0.1 63% 11.7 / 10.8 178*
12 David Spector '25 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 10/10 74* 88 +13 36th → 39th 0.1 29% 12.7 / 14.5 76*
13 Emily Avey '25 University of Oregon 10/10 73* 90 +17 36th → 40th 0.2 34% 13.1 / 14.4 74*
14 Francesco Nicoli '22 San Diego State University Aztecs 2 8/10 202* 259 +57 66th → 77th 0.8 91% 14.5 / 10.2 203*
14 Fabio Schettino '23 San Diego State University Aztecs 2 2/10 88* 113 +25 40th → 44th 0.1 25% 10.5 / 13.7 89*
15 Marcus Leitner '22 University of California at Santa Cruz 10/10 32* 62 +30 28th → 34th 0.5 36% 14.8 / 15.8 31*
16 Aidan Boylan '24 Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 10/10 77* 25 -52 37th → 26th 1.7 66% 15.7 / 14.3 77*
17 Mckenna Roonan '21 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 10/10 0* 30 +30 21st → 27th 0.5 42% 16.3 / 16.7 1*
18 Sadie Hoberman '25 Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 10/10 -22* -8 +14 17th → 19th 0.1 46% 17.2 / 17.3 -18*
19 Devon Kurisu '23 California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 10/10 28* -5 -33 27th → 20th 0.6 71% 17.7 / 15.8 25*
20 Kaylena Mann '22 California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 10/10 -50* -51 -1 13th → 13th 0.0 54% 18.7 / 18.1 -49*
21 Antoine Kepczyk '22 Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 10/10 -109* -168 -60 4th → 1st 1.6 52% 20.0 / 19.6 -112*
21 Tyler Hoang '25 California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 10/10 -96n* -115 -19 6th → 4th 0.2 58% 20.0 / 18.8 -96*
23 Declan Dury '22 California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 10/10 -177n* -210 -32 1st → 1st 0.4 62% 22.1 / 20.7 -177*
24 Jessica Dally '22 University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 10/10 -132* -230 -98 2nd → 1st 2.7 99% 23.6 / 20.1 -135*

Division B  24 boats · 10 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Samuel Patton '22 University of Hawaii 10/10 343* 516 +174 91st → 99th 7.8 4% 1.5 / 4.3 358*
2 Marianna Shand '24 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 10/10 255* 349 +94 76th → 92nd 3.7 9% 3.1 / 6.6 259*
3 Grace Austin '24 Stanford University 10/10 296* 337 +41 83rd → 90th 0.8 24% 3.4 / 5.4 312*
4 Clay Myers '25 California Maritime Academy 10/10 255* 332 +76 76th → 90th 2.6 11% 3.6 / 6.4 257*
5 Blake Roberts '25 University of California at Santa Cruz 10/10 136* 205 +69 50th → 66th 2.4 17% 7.1 / 10.5 139*
5 Thomas Pentimonti '24 University of Washington 10/10 194* 205 +11 64th → 66th 0.1 36% 7.1 / 8.4 196*
7 Harriet Jessup '22 University of California at Santa Barbara 10/10 184* 202 +18 61st → 66th 0.2 36% 7.3 / 8.8 183*
8 Diya Correa '22 University of Southern California 6/10 248* 192 -56 75th → 63rd 1.3 68% 7.8 / 6.9 248*
8 Edward Ansart '24 University of Southern California 4/10 151* 132 -18 53rd → 49th 0.1 56% 10.0 / 9.7 152*
9 Ian Collignon '23 San Diego State University Aztecs 1 10/10 127* 160 +33 48th → 55th 0.6 31% 8.9 / 10.8 126*
10 Christopher Hopkins '25 San Diego State University Aztecs 2 10/10 136* 129 -6 50th → 48th 0.0 34% 9.1 / 10.4 135*
11 Zack Taylor '23 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 10/10 121* 98 -24 47th → 41st 0.4 52% 11.1 / 11.0 121*
12 Adrien Stroumza '23 University of California at Berkeley 6/10 29* 127 +98 27th → 48th 2.8 17% 10.5 / 14.2 31*
12 Beck Boyea '24 University of California at Berkeley 4/10 102* 83 -20 42nd → 38th 0.1 57% 12.5 / 11.9 102*
13 Svenja Leonard '24 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 10/10 119* 43 -76 46th → 30th 4.1 70% 12.8 / 11.1 117*
14 Dane Williams '23 California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 10/10 10* 61 +50 23rd → 34th 1.4 32% 13.3 / 14.8 21*
15 Florence Duff '25 Cal Poly University S.L.O. 10/10 52* 19 -33 31st → 24th 0.7 58% 14.1 / 13.5 55*
16 Mitchell Powers '25 Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 10/10 -33* 13 +46 15th → 24th 1.1 29% 14.6 / 16.4 -18*
17 Rob Reigelman '23 California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 10/10 -39* -41 -2 14th → 14th 0.0 52% 17.0 / 16.5 -38*
18 Caden Ofarrell '23 California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 10/10 -104* -109 -5 5th → 4th 0.0 40% 18.1 / 18.6 -104*
19 Katy Priest '22 University of Oregon 10/10 -125n* -121 +3 3rd → 3rd 0.0 50% 19.4 / 18.7 -125*
20 Jonathan Hickey '23 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 10/10 -100* -168 -68 5th → 1st 2.6 66% 19.7 / 18.3 -102*
21 Kitana Barrus '22 California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 10/10 -138n* -206 -68 2nd → 1st 1.7 82% 22.3 / 19.0 -138*
22 Gage Reitzel '22 Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 10/10 -141* -218 -76 1st → 1st 1.7 93% 22.7 / 19.5 -137*
22 Ian Johnston '25 University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 10/10 -109n* -244 -135 4th → 1st 5.1 92% 22.7 / 18.3 -109*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →