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Bryson Women's Fleet Race (Day 1)

Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears151515
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers171717
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs181818
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows121212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal161616
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons141414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos131313
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears777
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers999
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs101010
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows444
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal888
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons666
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos555
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies333

Conditions — 02/18/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1018.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.16)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.39 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →