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PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 12–0
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 8–4
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 6–6
4 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4–8
5 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,185 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 30 matches (97%) with a log-loss of 0.211 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 62% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		110.31
school +0.45		Vanessa Lahrkamp / Abigail Tindall 3.86
Ellie Harned / Grace Austin 2.98
Sophie Fisher / Lauren Taylor 2.99		100%12–0 (100%)+0.1
2University of Hawaii
Rainbows		26.15Mercy Tangredi / Taylor Ledgerwood 1.97
Morgan Carew / Quinn Gladstone-Lamas 1.93
Vivian Bonsager / Sophia Shaeffer 2.14		71%8–4 (67%)−0.6
3University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		33.60
school −0.31, home +0.44		Molly Coghlin / Kaitlin Chan 1.98
Elizabeth Fourney / Lekha Sapers
Cristina Jackson / Juliet St. Germain		35%6–6 (50%)+1.8
4University of Washington
Huskies		43.55
school +0.12		Erin Pamplin / Maya Outhred 1.61
Jenna Hiegel / Julia Oglevie 0.25
Emily Smith / Amelia Kau 1.47		34%4–8 (33%)−0.0
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		52.19
school +0.12		Florence Duff / Alyssa Shadduck
Riley Foster / Chloe Schofield
Vivian Morse / Mira Shupe		10%0–12 (0%)−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University10.3113.3112–011.9≥+3.000.195%
3University of California at Santa Barbara3.605.006–64.2+1.401.813%
4University of Washington3.553.524–84.0−0.020.068%
2University of Hawaii6.155.308–48.6−0.850.493%
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.19-0.810–121.3≤−3.001.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Ellie HarnedStanford University2.985.9812–011.9≥+3.000.195%
Vivian MorseCal Poly University S.L.O.-0.52-3.520–121.3≤−3.001.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Santa Barbara94%
12Stanford UniversityUniversity of Washington100%
13University of HawaiiCal Poly University S.L.O.99%
14Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara100%
15University of WashingtonCal Poly University S.L.O.82%
16Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii99%
17University of WashingtonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara50%
18Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.100%
19University of HawaiiUniversity of Washington93%
110University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.81%
211University of HawaiiUniversity of Washington93%
212Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara100%
213University of HawaiiCal Poly University S.L.O.98%
214Stanford UniversityUniversity of Washington100%
215University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.80%
216Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii98%
217University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Washington52%
218Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.100%
219University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Santa Barbara92%
220University of WashingtonCal Poly University S.L.O.79%
321University of HawaiiUniversity of Washington93%
322Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara100%
323University of HawaiiCal Poly University S.L.O.98%
324Stanford UniversityUniversity of Washington100%
325University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.80%
326Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii98%
327University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Washington53%
328Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.100%
329University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii8%upset
330University of WashingtonCal Poly University S.L.O.78%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalRainbowsGauchosHuskiesMustangs
Stanford University Cardinal4–0✕WWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows3–1L✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1–3LL✕LW
University of Washington Huskies2–2LLW✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalRainbowsGauchosHuskiesMustangs
Stanford University Cardinal4–0✕WWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows3–1L✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–2LL✕WW
University of Washington Huskies1–3LLL✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CardinalRainbowsGauchosHuskiesMustangs
Stanford University Cardinal4–0✕WWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows2–2L✕LWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3–1LW✕WW
University of Washington Huskies1–3LLL✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
2 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-5-6
3 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
4 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
5 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5
6 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
7 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
8 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
9 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 4-5-6
10 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
11 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 1-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
13 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
14 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-4-5
15 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
17 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-4-6
18 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
19 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
20 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
21 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 4-5-6
22 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
23 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
24 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 4-5-6
25 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-4-5
26 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-5
27 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 1-5-6
28 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
29 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
30 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5

Conditions — 04/14/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1014.8 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From SSE (168°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1014.8 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →