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Charley Dole PCCSC Women's Fleet Race Championship

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 4 1 3 2 1 22 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26 [1-6, 14]
Sophie Fisher '26 [7-13]
Abigail Tindall '23 [1-6, 14]
Lauren Taylor '24 [7-13]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 6 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 31 Ellie Harned '26 [1-13]
Grace Austin '24 [14]
Grace Austin '24 [1-13]
Ellie Harned '26 [14]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 4 4 5 3 4 3 3 4 7 2 2 8 9 5 63 Molly Coghlin '25
Kaitlin Chan '23
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 11 5 4 5 6 6 4 5 6 1 4 7 3 4 71 Vivian Bonsager '25 [1-14]
Sophia Shaeffer '25 [1-6, 10-14]
Frances Tarpey-Schwed '23 [7-9]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 12 10 6 4 5 5 5 3 3 8 5 1 5 3 75 Marianna Shand '24
Linnea Jackson '25
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 2 3 7 6 7 4 6 6 12 7 10 4 6 7 87 Mercy Tangredi '25 [1-8, 10-12]
Morgan Carew '25 [9, 13-14]
Taylor Ledgerwood '23 [1-6, 10-12]
Quinn Gladstone-Lamas '26 [7-9, 13-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 13 9 3 9 13 10 8 9 8 5 8 5 8 6 114 Kingsley Ehrich '23
Lindsea Hayes '22
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 7 7 12 15 8 7 10 11 4 9 11 12 7 12 132 Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26
Iesha Carter '23
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 5 8 11 12 3 9 11 8 5 14 12 14 11 11 134 Elizabeth Fourney '26 [1-8, 11-12]
Cristina Jackson '26 [9-10, 13-14]
Lekha Sapers '24 [1-14]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 9 11 9 8 11 12 9 10 10 10 6 11 10 9 135 Emily Smith '25
Amelia Kau '23
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings B 3 6 13 11 9 11 14 7 15 13 13 6 14 10 145 Caroline Hurley '25
Christa Robertson '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings A 8 14 14 10 12 13 13 13 9 11 9 10 4 8 148 Kira Blumhagen '24
Ella Barnard '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 10 12 8 7 10 14 12 14 11 6 7 13 12 13 149 Erin Pamplin '24 [1-14]
Maya Outhred '24 [1-3, 9-14]
Julia Oglevie '26 [4-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 14 13 10 13 14 8 7 12 14 15 15 9 13 14 171 Florence Duff '25
Chloe Schofield '23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 15 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 13 12 14 16 16 16 206 Mira Shupe '26 [1-10]
Vivian Morse '25 [11-14]
Alyssa Shadduck '23 [1-10]
Mira Shupe '26 [11-14]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 16 DNF 16 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 16 15 15 15 229 Katherine Smith '24
Nitsa Thotz '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears33445566778899
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs11223344556677
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows6655443322111616
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal221116161515141413131212
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins44332211161615151414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos556677889910101111
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies7788991010111112121313
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings88776655443322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears11111212131314141515161611
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs99101011111212131314141515
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows141413131212111110109988
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal1010998877665544
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins12121111101099887766
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1313141415151616112233
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies151516161122334455
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings1616151514141313121211111010

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.0 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From SSW (212°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · S 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at UC Santa Barbara: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.32 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →