Western Washington University '24
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 87.95 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.084 rating points from 296 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | Western Washington University | 1.86 | 60.79 | 83.33 | 2 of 9 | 23 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Western Washington University | 1.84 | 60.57 | 90.00 | 2 of 15 | 33 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Western Washington University | 2.09 | 62.84 | 94.44 | 1 of 9 | 22 | Team page | |
| Spring 2023 | Western Washington University | 1.61 | 51.31 | 94.44 | 1 of 9 | 41 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 (fleet 0.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 13–12 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | — | 7–10 |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | — | 6–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 13–12 against 8.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | crew | 1.40 | 1.59 | 1–8 | 0.9 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2024-02-24 | Jeff Mixdorf Team Race | crew | 0.49 | 2.56 | 6–2 | 3.6 | +2.08 | 3.3 | 4% |
| 2023-04-29 | Island Cup | crew | 0.50 | 2.25 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.75 | 1.2 | 27% |
| 2023-03-04 | Jeff Mixdorf | crew | 1.01 | 1.84 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +0.83 | 0.3 | 46% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Crew | B | 8 | 5.0 | +0.29 |
| North/North | Crew | A | 7 | 11.1 | +0.04 |
| Frosh Soph | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.2 | 1.05 |
| Cascadia Cup JV | Crew | A, B | 8 | 5.4 | -0.29 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Crew | A | 12 | 5.1 | +0.27 |
| PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Crew | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| PCCSC Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 6.8 | -0.17 |
| Jeff Mixdorf Team Race | Crew | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Husky Women's Fleet Race Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 2.6 | +0.18 |
| Gorge Invite | Crew | B | 10 | 9.9 | +0.01 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| WWU Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.5 | 0.16 |
| PCCSC Fall Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 9.2 | +0.16 |
| Outlaw Regatta | Crew | A | 5 | 8.6 | -0.57 |
| North/North | Crew | B | 6 | 5.0 | +0.12 |
| Cascadia Cup Varsity | Crew | B | 3 | 2.7 | -0.13 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Jeff Mixdorf | Crew | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Island Cup | Crew | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Husky Women's Fleet Race 2 Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 1.7 | +0.32 |
| Husky Women's Fleet Race 1 Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 2.5 | +0.33 |
| Gorge Invite | Crew | A | 7 | 6.4 | +0.09 |
| Charley Dole PCCSC Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 10.6 | -0.18 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| (Day 1) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 12.2 | — |
| Outlaw Regatta | Crew | A | 10 | 2.8 | — |
| North/North | Crew | A, B | 9 | 7.9 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Crew | A | 8 | 12.1 | — |
| (Day 2) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 8.5 | — |
| Cascadia Cup Gold College | Crew | A | 2 | 3.5 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Women's Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 5.8 | — |
| Gorge Invite | Crew | B | 6 | 6.7 | — |
| 2022 Womens PCCs Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 7.2 | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Crew | B | 4 | 2.5 | — |
| North/North | Crew | B | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| Frosh/Soph | Crew | A | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Crew | C | 6 | 3.8 | — |
| Cascadia Cup (Varsity) | Crew | B | 8 | 2.8 | — |
| 2022 Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | A | 7 | 15.1 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Garfield High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Roosevelt High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Ingraham High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Inglemoor High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Nathan Hale High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Lycee Francais de Chicago |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
