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PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 9–0
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 5–4
3 University of Washington University of Washington Husky Women 3–6
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Women 1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,921 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 18 matches (94%) with a log-loss of 0.239 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.06 ± 0.47: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		110.29
school +0.29		Hannah Freeman / Grace Austin 3.51 6–0
Michelle Lahrkamp / Ellie Harned 3.82 6–0
Vanessa Lahrkamp / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.77 6–0
Grace Austin / Hannah Freeman 3–0
Ellie Harned / Michelle Lahrkamp 3.26 3–0
Gwendolyn Donahue / Vanessa Lahrkamp 3–0		99%9–0 (100%)+0.1
2University of Hawaii
Rainbow Wahine		25.91
school −0.25		Mercy Tangredi / Morgan Carew 2.17
Vivian Bonsager / Anna Kalabukhova 2.21
Martha Schuessler / Peyton Lieser 1.74 5–1
Martha Schuessler / Malia Johnson 1.75 0–3		55%5–4 (56%)+0.1
3University of Washington
Husky Women		34.97Erin Pamplin / Grace Smith 1.75
Sammy Farkas / Maya Outhred 1.70
Emily Smith / Julia Oglevie 1.46		36%3–6 (33%)−0.3
4Western Washington University
Viking Women		43.51Mary D’Arcy / Faith Burton 1.41
Anna Morrow / Kerry Wier 0.64
Ellie Blakemore / Ella Barnard		9%1–8 (11%)+0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University10.2913.299–09.0≥+3.000.195%
4Western Washington University3.513.711–80.9+0.190.060%
2University of Hawaii5.916.005–44.9+0.090.071%
3University of Washington4.974.723–63.3−0.250.078%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Hannah FreemanStanford University3.516.516–06.0≥+3.000.098%
Grace AustinStanford University2.745.743–03.0≥+3.000.097%
Ellie HarnedStanford University3.266.263–03.0≥+3.000.097%
Gwendolyn DonahueStanford University1.794.793–03.0≥+3.000.097%
Mary D’ArcyWestern Washington University1.411.601–80.9+0.190.060%
Anna MorrowWestern Washington University0.640.831–80.9+0.190.060%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii100%
12Stanford UniversityUniversity of Washington100%
13Stanford UniversityWestern Washington University99%
14University of HawaiiUniversity of Washington72%
15University of HawaiiWestern Washington University92%
16University of WashingtonWestern Washington University81%
27University of WashingtonWestern Washington University81%
28University of HawaiiWestern Washington University92%
29Stanford UniversityWestern Washington University99%
210University of HawaiiUniversity of Washington72%
211Stanford UniversityUniversity of Washington100%
212Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii100%
313Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Hawaii8%upset
314Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii100%
315University of HawaiiUniversity of Washington72%
316Stanford UniversityWestern Washington University99%
317University of WashingtonWestern Washington University80%
318Stanford UniversityUniversity of Washington100%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalWahineWomenWomen
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine2–1L✕WW
University of Washington Husky Women1–2LL✕W
Western Washington University Viking Women0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalWahineWomenWomen
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine2–1L✕WW
University of Washington Husky Women1–2LL✕W
Western Washington University Viking Women0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CardinalWahineWomenWomen
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine1–2L✕WL
University of Washington Husky Women1–2LL✕W
Western Washington University Viking Women1–2LWL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 4-5-6
2 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Husky Women 4-5-6
3 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Viking Women 3-4-6
4 University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 2-3-4 def. University of Washington Husky Women 1-5-6
5 University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Viking Women 3-4-6
6 University of Washington Husky Women 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Viking Women 1-5-6
7 University of Washington Husky Women 1-3-4 def. Western Washington University Viking Women 2-5-6
8 University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Viking Women 4-5-6
9 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Viking Women 4-5-6
10 University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Husky Women 3-5-6
11 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Husky Women 3-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 3-5-6
13 Western Washington University Viking Women 1-2-6 def. University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 3-4-5
14 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 4-5-6
15 University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 1-3-5 def. University of Washington Husky Women 2-4-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Viking Women 3-4-5
17 University of Washington Husky Women 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Viking Women 4-5-6
18 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Husky Women 3-5-6

Conditions — 04/06/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From SW (231°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1023.8 hPa

What this breeze does at UC San Diego — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at UC San Diego in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled fleet-race days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →