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Outlaw Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 4 7 11
2 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 13 18 31
3 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 24 10 34
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 19 17 36
5 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 16 22 38
6 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 13 26 39
7 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 32 16 48
8 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 24 36 60
9 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 35 28 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 1 1 1 1 4 Thomas Pentimonti '24
Aidan Kemper '23
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 3 4 2 4 13 Nikolo Vo '23
Ethan Wickman '25
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 4 3 4 2 13 Luke Serra '22
Mikaela Lee '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 2 6 5 3 16 Tyler Nolasco '23
Kevin Hicks '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 6 5 3 5 19 Maxwell Dodd '23
Caroline Hurley '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 5 7 6 6 24 Emily Avey '25
Aidan Clark '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 7 2 8 7 24 Dalton Lovett '25
Allison Sasaki '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 9 8 7 8 32 Sarah Kahle '22
Olivia Craig '24
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 8 9 9 9 35 Ben Lewis '24
John Kish '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 2 1 2 2 7 Emily Smith '25
Brianne Abbott-Rogge '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 5 3 1 1 10 Kira Blumhagen '24
Ella Barnard '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 3 2 4 7 16 Jenna Hiegel '25
Duncan Weiner '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 4 4 5 4 17 Cooper Snell '24
Matthew Lindburg '25
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 6 6 3 3 18 Liam Brinton '22
Kaj Porter '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 1 5 8 8 22 Leopold Sabharwal '25
Maya Giss '24
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 7 7 7 5 26 Paul Schreiner '22
Marty Weigel '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 8 8 6 6 28 Quincy Spurlock '24
Kathryn Lance '24
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 9 9 9 9 36 Sadie Creemer '25
Kate Ryan '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 173738181
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 274748282
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 175757373
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 276767474
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 181818787
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 282828888
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 187878787
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 288887575
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 387877676

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 174748282
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 281818787
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 176767474
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 273738181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 182828888
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 287878787
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 188887575
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 287877676
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 375757373

Conditions — 10/23/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1005.9 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From SE (130°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.8 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1005.9 hPa Rain0.55 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn · S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →