Western Washington University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 (fleet 1.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–5 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 5–5 against 5.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-29 | Island Cup | skipper | 1.03 | 0.39 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.64 | 0.1 | 90% |
| 2022-04-16 | Island Cup | skipper | 0.80 | 0.90 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.9 | 0.27 |
| North/North | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.0 | 2.14 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.0 | 0.97 |
| Cascadia Cup Gold College | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.0 | 1.56 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 0.29 |
| North/North | Skipper | C | 4 | 6.5 | -2.18 |
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.2 | 3.24 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | 1.59 |
| Cascadia Cup (JV) | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 1.31 |
| 2022 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.5 | 0.49 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
