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Island Cup

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 8–1
2 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 6–3
3 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 6–3
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 6–3
5 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 1–8
6 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 0–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,595 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 11 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.427 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.58: a typical event, more orderly than 74% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
2University of Washington
Huskies		31.66
school −0.06		Henry Stier / Kaia Armas
Jaxon Gordon / Malcolm Renney
Samuel Delasanta / Duncan Weiner 1.04		55%4–1 (80%)+1.2
3Western Washington University
Vikings 1		22.14
school −0.34, home +0.37		Anna Morrow / Kira Davis
Leopold Sabharwal / Maya Giss
Lucas Burzycki / Fiona Mcbride 0.93		65%4–2 (67%)+0.1
4Western Washington University
Vikings 2		12.50
school −0.34, home +0.37		Tyler Nolasco / Oliver Tanaka 1.25
Cooper Snell / Aliyah Dodge
Maxwell Dodd / Mason Dunbar 0.43 3–0
Maxwell Dodd / Christa Robertson 0.46 0–2		73%3–2 (60%)−0.7
5Portland State University
Vikings		4-0.04Christopher Sloggett / Yoko Kinoshita
Alexx Johnson / Kelly Pompermayer 0–4
Benjamin Nelson / Thomas Moore 0–4
Alexx Johnson / Bailey Deets 0–2
Axcelle Bell / Karlie Bonds 0–2		12%0–6 (0%)−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of Washington Huskies1.663.094–12.7+1.431.222%
3Western Washington University Vikings 12.142.234–23.9+0.090.065%
4Western Washington University Vikings 22.501.783–23.7−0.720.490%
5Portland State University Vikings-0.04-3.040–60.7≤−3.001.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Samuel DelasantaUniversity of Washington1.042.484–12.7+1.431.222%
Anna MorrowWestern Washington University0.060.164–23.9+0.090.065%
Leopold SabharwalWestern Washington University0.800.904–23.9+0.090.065%
Lucas BurzyckiWestern Washington University0.931.024–23.9+0.090.065%
Maxwell DoddWestern Washington University0.43-0.293–23.7−0.720.490%
Cooper SnellWestern Washington University0.65-0.073–23.7−0.720.490%
Alexx JohnsonPortland State University0.12-2.880–60.7≤−3.001.0>99%
Benjamin NelsonPortland State University-0.07-3.070–40.4≤−3.000.5>99%
Christopher SloggettPortland State University-0.45-3.440–60.7≤−3.001.0>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
12Western Washington University Vikings 1Portland State University Vikings90%
14University of Washington HuskiesPortland State University Vikings85%
17Western Washington University Vikings 2Portland State University Vikings92%
18University of Washington HuskiesWestern Washington University Vikings 140%upset
110Western Washington University Vikings 1Western Washington University Vikings 242%upset
114Western Washington University Vikings 2University of Washington Huskies70%
217Western Washington University Vikings 1Portland State University Vikings90%
219University of Washington HuskiesPortland State University Vikings83%
222Western Washington University Vikings 2Portland State University Vikings91%
223University of Washington HuskiesWestern Washington University Vikings 136%upset
225Western Washington University Vikings 1Western Washington University Vikings 244%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.VikesHuskies12VikingsDucks
University of Victoria Vikes5–0✕WWWWW
University of Washington Huskies3–2L✕LLWW
Western Washington University Vikings 16–4LW✕✕WW
Western Washington University Vikings 26–4LW✕✕WW
Portland State University Vikings1–4LLLL✕W
University of Oregon Ducks0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.VikesHuskies12VikingsDucks
University of Victoria Vikes3–1✕WLLWW
University of Washington Huskies3–1L✕WWWW
Western Washington University Vikings 16–2WL✕✕WW
Western Washington University Vikings 26–2WL✕✕WW
Portland State University Vikings0–4LLLL✕–
University of Oregon Ducks0–4LLLL–✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-5-6
2 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. Portland State University Vikings 4-5-6
3 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
4 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-4 def. Portland State University Vikings 3-5-6
5 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 3-4-6
6 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
7 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-3-4 def. Portland State University Vikings 2-5-6
8 University of Washington Huskies 1-3-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1 2-4-5
9 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
10 Western Washington University Vikings 1 2-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-4-6
11 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-3 def. Portland State University Vikings 4-5-6
12 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-5
13 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1 3-4-6
14 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-3-6 def. University of Washington Huskies 2-4-5
15 Portland State University Vikings 1-2-6 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-5
16 University of Victoria Vikes 1-3-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 2-4-6
17 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. Portland State University Vikings 4-5-6
18 Western Washington University Vikings 2 2-3-4 def. University of Oregon Ducks 1-5-6
19 University of Washington Huskies 1-4-5 def. Portland State University Vikings 2-3-6
20 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-3-6 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2-4-5
21 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-6 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-5
22 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-2-5 def. Portland State University Vikings 3-4-6
23 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1 3-4-5
24 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
25 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 3-4-5
26 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-5 def. Portland State University Vikings 3-4-6
27 University of Washington Huskies 2-3-4 def. University of Oregon Ducks 1-5-6

Conditions — 04/16/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1012.7 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1012.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Western Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Western Washington in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Western Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (23 labelled fleet-race days at Western Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →