Western Washington University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 (fleet 0.73) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–5 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–1 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–2 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 0–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (9 matches) the record is 6–3 against 5.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-29 | Island Cup | skipper | 0.60 | 2.35 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.75 | 1.2 | 27% |
| 2022-04-16 | Island Cup | skipper | 0.43 | -0.29 | 3–2 | 3.7 | −0.72 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Gorge Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 1.73 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup JV | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.0 | -0.11 |
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Gorge Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.0 | 0.10 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.0 | 1.20 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.8 | 1.03 |
| North/North | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.0 | — |
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 1.39 |
| Cascadia Cup (JV) | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | -0.51 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Sea to Sky | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.5 | -0.69 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Crew | A | 4 | 12.8 | — |
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 2 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | — |
| North North JV | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.7 | -0.60 |
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.3 | -0.74 |
| Cascadia Cup Silver | Crew | A | 8 | 5.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
