Navigate

Outlaw Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Husky Gold 16 15 31
2 University of Washington University of Washington Husky Purple 13 21 34
3 Beavers Beavers Beavers 44 23 67
4 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 30 40 70
5 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 32 57 89
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 54 43 97
7 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 58 62 120
8 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 68 64 132
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 67 67 134
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Purple 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 13 Erik Skeel '20 [1-6]
Austin Hauter '21 [7-8]
Elizabeth Murphy '22 [1-6]
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Gold 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 4 16 Karl Skeel '20
Avery Wolf '21
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 4 6 3 3 5 3 3 3 30 Arthur Bruce '00
Keevan Tallon '21
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 3 4 6 5 1 7 4 2 32 Lachlan Anders-Macleod '21
Charlotte Brownstone '20
Beavers Beavers Beavers 6 5 7 8 4 4 5 5 44
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 9 2 4 6 7 6 DNS DNS 54 Fiona Mcbride '21
Kevin Hicks '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 5 8 5 7 8 5 DNS DNS 58 Wyatt Keysor '20
Hayley Rawden '20
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 8 7 9 9 6 8 DNS DNS 67 Richard Hill '20
Christa Robertson '24
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 7 9 8 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS 68
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Gold 2 3 2 4 1 1 1 1 15 John Kauffman '22
Aidan Urbano '23
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Purple 4 2 1 1 4 3 3 3 21 Maddie Tutton '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Austin Hauter '21 [3-4]
Katie Biely '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Beavers Beavers Beavers 5 1 4 3 2 2 2 4 23
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 2 40 Tillie Morris '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Marelie Vorster '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Katy Priest '22 [1-6]
Tillie Morris '22 [7-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 1 4 3 2 3 DNS DNS DNS 43 Camille Ottaway '20
Madelyn Carr '20
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 9 9 DNS 6 8 5 5 5 57 Jacob Davis '22 [1-3, 5-6]
Jack Gramling '23 [4, 7-8]
Ben Carsner '20 [1-3, 5-6]
Lachlan Anders-Macleod '21 [4]
Jacob Davis '22 [7-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 3 6 8 9 6 DNS DNS DNS 62 Taylor Bayly '21 [1-8]
Fiona Mcbride '21 [1-2]
Wyatt Keysor '20 [3-8]
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 6 5 6 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS 64
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 7 8 7 8 7 DNS DNS DNS 67 Maxwell Dodd '23
Benjamin Fly-Rinker '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers 17171717171717171
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers 27474747474747474
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks7373737373737373
BeaversBeavers Beavers7575757575757575
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Gold8181818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Purple8282828282828282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 18787878787878787
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 28888888888888888
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 355555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers 17171717171717171
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers 27474747474747474
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks7373737373737373
BeaversBeavers Beavers7575757575757575
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Gold8181818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Purple8282828282828282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 18787878787878787
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 28888888888888888
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 355555555
School / Team SkipperCrew
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Lachlan Anders-Macleod '21 Charlotte Brownstone '20
Pioneers 1 Jacob Davis '22 [1-3, 5-6]
Jack Gramling '23 [4, 7-8]		 Ben Carsner '20 [1-3, 5-6]
Lachlan Anders-Macleod '21 [4]
Jacob Davis '22 [7-8]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Arthur Bruce '00 Keevan Tallon '21
Ducks Tillie Morris '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Marelie Vorster '20 [3-4, 7-8]		 Katy Priest '22 [1-6]
Tillie Morris '22 [7-8]
University of Washington University of Washington Karl Skeel '20 Avery Wolf '21
Husky Gold John Kauffman '22 Aidan Urbano '23
University of Washington University of Washington Erik Skeel '20 [1-6]
Austin Hauter '21 [7-8]		 Elizabeth Murphy '22 [1-6]
Husky Purple Maddie Tutton '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Austin Hauter '21 [3-4]		 Katie Biely '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Wyatt Keysor '20 Hayley Rawden '20
Vikings 1 Taylor Bayly '21 [1-8] Fiona Mcbride '21 [1-2]
Wyatt Keysor '20 [3-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Fiona Mcbride '21 Kevin Hicks '24
Vikings 2 Camille Ottaway '20 Madelyn Carr '20
Western Washington University Western Washington University Richard Hill '20 Christa Robertson '24
Vikings 3 Maxwell Dodd '23 Benjamin Fly-Rinker '23

Conditions — 10/26/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1025.4 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From N (5°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1025.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn* · N 10 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.18)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.18 means a rating gap counts about 16% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →