| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies 1 | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
University of Oregon | Ducks | 1–1 |
| 4 | |
University of Washington | Huskies 2 | 1–2 |
| 4 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | 1–2 |
| 6 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 14,174 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 8 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.504 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | 4.33 | 7.33 | 3–0 | 2.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 31% |
| 3 | University of Oregon Ducks | 1.21 | 3.31 | 1–1 | 0.3 | +2.10 | 1.3 | 24% |
| 2 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 3.88 | 4.43 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 2.53 | 0.95 | 1–2 | 1.8 | −1.59 | 1.0 | 97% |
| 4 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | 4.11 | 2.26 | 1–2 | 2.0 | −1.85 | 1.2 | 99% |
| 6 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 0.87 | -2.13 | 0–2 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hauter | University of Washington | 1.82 | 4.82 | 3–0 | 2.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 31% |
| Taylor Bell | University of Washington | 0.26 | 3.26 | 3–0 | 2.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 31% |
| Fiona Mcbride | Western Washington University | 0.53 | -1.06 | 1–2 | 1.8 | −1.59 | 1.0 | 97% |
| Emily Tan | Western Washington University | 0.75 | -0.83 | 1–2 | 1.8 | −1.59 | 1.0 | 97% |
| Mira Anders | University of Washington | 1.14 | -0.71 | 1–2 | 2.0 | −1.85 | 1.2 | 99% |
| Zackery Martin | University of Washington | 0.50 | -1.35 | 1–2 | 2.0 | −1.85 | 1.2 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 97% | |
| 1 | 2 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | 46% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | University of Oregon Ducks | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 20% | upset |
| 1 | 4 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 60% | |
| 1 | 5 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 83% | |
| 1 | 6 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | University of Oregon Ducks | 94% | |
| 1 | 7 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 80% | |
| 1 | 8 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | 53% |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | Ducks | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies 1 | 4–2 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 3–5 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| University of Oregon Ducks | 1–1 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 2 | 4–2 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 3–5 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 3–5 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Ducks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Washington | Huskies 1 | Austin Hauter '21 Erik Skeel '20 Taylor Bell '23 |
Blake Winner '20 Elizabeth Murphy '22 Julia Hughes '21 Maddie Tutton '21 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | Lauren Wittkopf '22 Marijke Jorna '21 Niko Twilla '21 |
Tyler Nolasco '23 Harrison Saliba '21 Kevin Hicks '24 |
|
University of Oregon | Ducks | Arthur Bruce '00 Marelie Vorster '20 Tillie Morris '22 |
Keevan Tallon '21 Katy Priest '22 Ava Digrande '22 |
|
University of Washington | Huskies 2 | Karl Skeel '20 Mira Anders '23 Zackery Martin '23 |
Avery Wolf '21 Farzana Mohamedali '20 Amelia Kau '23 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | Camille Ottaway '20 Emily Tan '20 Fiona Mcbride '21 |
Madelyn Carr '20 Cece Nielsen '23 Cooper Snell '23 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | Emily Hammond '20 Lucas Burzycki '23 Maxwell Dodd '23 |
Amber Crabb '20 Yumi-Shika Shridhar '20 Benjamin Fly-Rinker '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
