Western Washington University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.84 (fleet 1.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–6 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 6–2 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 0–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 10–4 against 8.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-29 | Island Cup | skipper | 0.97 | 2.29 | 3–1 | 2.2 | +1.32 | 0.8 | 33% |
| 2023-03-04 | Jeff Mixdorf | skipper | 1.01 | 2.03 | 3–1 | 2.2 | +1.02 | 0.6 | 37% |
| 2022-04-16 | Island Cup | skipper | 0.93 | 1.02 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| WWU Frosh/Soph | Crew | B | 4 | 9.0 | +0.00 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| WWU Frosh/Soph | Crew | B | 4 | 5.2 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.2 | 0.25 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North | Skipper | C | 4 | 6.5 | -1.72 |
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.9 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Sea to Sky | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 1.65 |
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 2 | 0% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
