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Island Cup

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 5–1
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 6 5–2
3 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 4 5–2
4 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 5–2
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 5 5–2
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 4–3
7 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 3–4
8 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 2–5
9 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2–5
9 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 2–5
11 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 7 1–5
12 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1–6
12 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 1–6
14 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1–6

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,470 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 19 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.345 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.26 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 72% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Washington
Huskies 3		24.52
school +0.12		Samuel Delasanta / Duncan Weiner 1.35
Aragorn Crozier / Grace Smith 1.57
Emily Smith / Brianne Abbott-Rogge 1.46		83%4–0 (100%)+0.7
2Western Washington University
Vikings 6		33.72
school −0.29, home +0.43		Nathan Gerber 1.15
Lucas Burzycki / Kathryn Drennan 0.97
Tyler Nolasco / Calvin Blaser 1.40 1–1
Tyler Nolasco / Kerry Wier 1.40 2–0		55%3–1 (75%)+0.8
3Western Washington University
Vikings 4		33.72
school −0.29, home +0.43		Nathan Gerber 1.15
Lucas Burzycki / Kathryn Drennan 0.97
Tyler Nolasco / Calvin Blaser 1.40 1–1
Tyler Nolasco / Kerry Wier 1.40 2–0		55%3–1 (75%)+0.8
4University of Washington
Huskies 1		15.19
school +0.12		Thomas Pentimonti / Maya Outhred 1.52
Erin Pamplin / Julia Oglevie 1.61
Maxwell Miller / Amelia Kau 1.91		91%4–1 (80%)−0.5
4Western Washington University
Vikings 5		52.16
school −0.29, home +0.43		Soren Althoff / Matthew Lindburg
Kurtis Johnston / Lucas Schadewitz 0.29
Zoe Plattner / Aliyah Dodge 0.50		51%2–1 (67%)+0.5
6Western Washington University
Vikings 1		62.68
school −0.29, home +0.43		Dalton Lovett / Christa Robertson 1.38
Anna Morrow / Ella Barnard 0.50
Maxwell Dodd / Eric Newell 0.60		50%3–1 (75%)+1.0
7Western Washington University
Vikings 3		52.16
school −0.29, home +0.43		Soren Althoff / Matthew Lindburg
Kurtis Johnston / Lucas Schadewitz 0.29
Zoe Plattner / Aliyah Dodge 0.50		51%2–1 (67%)+0.5
8Western Washington University
Vikings 2		72.72
school −0.29, home +0.43		Caroline Hurley / Piper Easton
Malcolm Duncan Graves / Carolyn Harmon 0.60
Leopold Sabharwal / Maya Giss 1.03		33%1–3 (25%)−0.3
9Oregon State University
Beavers		81.21
school +0.07		Ethan Wickman / Paul Schreiner
Austin Victer / Quincy Spurlock
Stella Doehring / Liam Brinton		20%1–4 (20%)−0.0
9University of Washington
Huskies 2		43.07
school +0.12		Jaden Unruh / Henry Stier 1.05
Lauren Mcclintock / Ethan Eschbach
Benjamin Luu / Judah Wong 1.51		51%1–4 (20%)−1.5
12University of Oregon
Ducks		90.40Emily Avey / Trevor Skeffington 0.74 0–3
John Kish / Foster Hobbs 0–3
Sadie Creemer / Haley (Mae) Lohf -0.16 0–3
Emily Avey / Aidan Clark 0.74 0–1
John Kish / Jacob Matyas 0–1
Sadie Creemer / Elisabeth Schreiner -0.07 0–1		14%0–4 (0%)−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Washington Huskies 34.527.524–03.3≥+3.001.146%
6Western Washington University Vikings 12.684.433–12.0+1.751.227%
3Western Washington University Vikings 43.725.043–12.2+1.320.833%
7Western Washington University Vikings 32.163.012–11.5+0.850.349%
9Oregon State University Beavers1.211.191–41.0−0.020.079%
8Western Washington University Vikings 22.722.081–31.3−0.640.190%
4University of Washington Huskies 15.194.274–14.5−0.920.493%
9University of Washington Huskies 23.070.861–42.5−2.212.399%
12University of Oregon Ducks0.40-2.600–40.6≤−3.000.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Samuel DelasantaUniversity of Washington1.354.354–03.3≥+3.001.146%
Aragorn CrozierUniversity of Washington1.574.574–03.3≥+3.001.146%
Anna MorrowWestern Washington University0.502.253–12.0+1.751.227%
Maxwell DoddWestern Washington University0.602.353–12.0+1.751.227%
Lucas BurzyckiWestern Washington University0.972.293–12.2+1.320.833%
Kurtis JohnstonWestern Washington University0.291.132–11.5+0.850.349%
Ethan WickmanOregon State University-0.18-0.191–41.0−0.020.079%
Austin VicterOregon State University-0.27-0.291–41.0−0.020.079%
Stella DoehringOregon State University1.251.241–41.0−0.020.079%
Malcolm Duncan GravesWestern Washington University0.60-0.041–31.3−0.640.190%
Leopold SabharwalWestern Washington University1.030.391–31.3−0.640.190%
Maxwell MillerUniversity of Washington1.910.994–14.5−0.920.493%
Emily AveyUniversity of Oregon0.74-2.260–40.6≤−3.000.9>99%
John KishUniversity of Oregon-0.39-3.390–40.6≤−3.000.9>99%
Sadie CreemerUniversity of Oregon-0.16-3.160–40.6≤−3.000.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Washington Huskies 3University of Washington Huskies 282%
12University of Washington Huskies 1Western Washington University Vikings 193%
15Western Washington University Vikings 4Oregon State University Beavers94%
18University of Washington Huskies 1University of Washington Huskies 289%
111Western Washington University Vikings 2Oregon State University Beavers82%
112Western Washington University Vikings 3University of Oregon Ducks87%
117University of Washington Huskies 3Oregon State University Beavers96%
118Western Washington University Vikings 1University of Oregon Ducks91%
123University of Washington Huskies 1Oregon State University Beavers98%
124University of Washington Huskies 2University of Oregon Ducks93%
127Western Washington University Vikings 4Western Washington University Vikings 273%
133University of Washington Huskies 3Western Washington University Vikings 468%
134Western Washington University Vikings 1Western Washington University Vikings 363%
136Oregon State University BeaversUniversity of Oregon Ducks71%
139Western Washington University Vikings 4University of Washington Huskies 119%upset
140Western Washington University Vikings 3University of Washington Huskies 229%upset
141University of Washington Huskies 3Western Washington University Vikings 286%
147University of Washington Huskies 1Western Washington University Vikings 292%
148Western Washington University Vikings 1University of Washington Huskies 240%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.36415132Beavers27DucksVikingsVikes
University of Washington Huskies 312–8✕LL✕LLLLW✕LWWW
Western Washington University Vikings 631–17W✕✕W✕✕✕✕WW✕WWL
Western Washington University Vikings 431–17W✕✕W✕✕✕✕WW✕WWL
University of Washington Huskies 112–8✕LL✕LLLLW✕LWWW
Western Washington University Vikings 531–17W✕✕W✕✕✕✕WW✕WWL
Western Washington University Vikings 131–17W✕✕W✕✕✕✕WW✕WWL
Western Washington University Vikings 331–17W✕✕W✕✕✕✕WW✕WWL
Western Washington University Vikings 231–17W✕✕W✕✕✕✕WW✕WWL
Oregon State University Beavers2–5LLLLLLLL✕LLWW–
University of Washington Huskies 212–8✕LL✕LLLLW✕LWWW
Western Washington University Vikings 731–17W✕✕W✕✕✕✕WW✕WWL
University of Oregon Ducks1–6LLLLLLLLLLL✕–W
Portland State University Vikings1–6LLLLLLLLLLL–✕W
University of Victoria Vikes1–6LWWLWWWW–LWLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 3-5-6
2 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1 3-5-6
3 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-3-6 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2-4-5
4 Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-2-5 def. Portland State University Vikings 3-4-6
5 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-3-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2-5-6
6 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
7 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 7 3-4-5
8 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 3-5-6
9 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-6 def. University of Victoria Vikes 3-4-5
10 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-3-4 def. Portland State University Vikings 2-5-6
11 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-3-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2-5-6
12 Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-2-4 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-5-6
13 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 3-5-6
14 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 7 3-4-6
15 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-3 def. University of Victoria Vikes 4-5-6
16 University of Washington Huskies 2 1-2-4 def. Portland State University Vikings 3-5-6 DNF
17 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-5 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-4-6
18 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
19 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 4-5-6
20 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 3-4-6
21 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 7 3-4-6
22 Portland State University Vikings 1-2-6 def. University of Victoria Vikes 3-4-5
23 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-6 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-4-5
24 University of Washington Huskies 2 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
25 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3 3-5-6
26 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1 3-5-6
27 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 3-4-5
28 Western Washington University Vikings 7 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 4-5-6
29 Oregon State University Beavers 1-3-4 def. Portland State University Vikings 2-5-6
30 University of Oregon Ducks 1-3-6 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2-4-5
31 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-6 def. University of Washington Huskies 1 3-4-5
32 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 4-5-6
33 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 3-4-5
34 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 3-4-6
35 Western Washington University Vikings 7 1-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 2-5-6
36 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-4 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-5-6
37 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-3 def. Portland State University Vikings 4-5-6
38 Western Washington University Vikings 5 2-4-5 DSQ def. University of Victoria Vikes 1-3-6 DSQ,DSQ
39 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 1 3-4-6
40 Western Washington University Vikings 3 2-3-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 1-4-6
41 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 3-4-5
42 Western Washington University Vikings 7 2-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-4-6
43 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
44 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 4-5-6
45 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-2-3 def. Portland State University Vikings 4-5-6 DNF
46 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 3-5-6
47 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 4-5-6
48 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-4-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 2-3-6 DNF

Conditions — 04/29/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From S (184°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1014.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Western Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Western Washington in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Western Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (23 labelled fleet-race days at Western Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →