Western Washington University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 (fleet 0.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–10 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 2–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 7–10 against 8.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-24 | Jeff Mixdorf Team Race | skipper | 0.71 | 0.37 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2023-04-29 | Island Cup | skipper | 0.60 | -0.04 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.64 | 0.1 | 90% |
| 2023-03-04 | Jeff Mixdorf | skipper | 0.20 | -0.32 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.52 | 0.1 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Jeff Mixdorf Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| WWU Frosh/Soph | Crew | A | 6 | 10.5 | -0.39 |
| Outlaw Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 2.90 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup JV | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 0.74 |
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Gorge Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.4 | 0.91 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.5 | 0.02 |
| North/North | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.6 | -2.33 |
| WWU Frosh/Soph | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.6 | 0.90 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup JV | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.5 | 1.69 |
| Gorge Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.6 | -0.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
