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Rainier Cup JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 22 14 36
2 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 27 22 49
3 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 20 34 54
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 25 29 54
5 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 30 41 71
6 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 46 37 83
7 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 56 55 111
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 1 5 4 6 1 1 1 20 Kawika Tumilowicz '25
Cianna Coyle '26
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 2 3 4 2 2 3 4 2 22 Henry Stier '23
Duncan Weiner '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 4 4 1 5 1 2 2 6 25 Malcolm Duncan Graves '24
Carolyn Harmon '26
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 3 2 2 3 4 5 3 5 27 Benjamin Luu '26
Ethan Eschbach '25
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 6 5 3 1 3 4 5 3 30 Cassius Tossavainen '26
Elisabeth Grace Diemer '26
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 4 46 John Kish '23
Jacob Matyas '23
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 5 7 7 7 7 7 DNF DNF 56 Ella Notdurft '25 [1-8]
Jalynn Serpa '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Haley (Mae) Lohf '26 [3-4, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 3 14 Lauren Mcclintock '25
Sarah Kahle '22
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 3 2 2 2 DNF 1 2 2 22 Samuel Delasanta '24
Brianne Abbott-Rogge '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 3 3 3 5 5 3 5 29 Anna Morrow '23
Aliyah Dodge '25
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 6 5 4 5 4 DNF 1 1 34 Julia Mast '23
Rebecca Masliah '23
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 4 4 7 6 2 4 6 4 37 Sadie Creemer '25 [1-8]
Foster Hobbs '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Elisabeth Schreiner '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 7 7 6 4 3 3 5 6 41 Aaron Heard '25
Marty Weigel '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 5 6 5 7 DNF DNF DNF DNF 55 Kate Ryan '25
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1021028282
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 182827676
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 2102102
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers7676102102
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 182827676
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 21021028282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings7676

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers7676102102
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 1102102
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 282827676
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers82827676
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 11021028282
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 27676
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings1021028282

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1018.8 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From SSE (146°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1018.8 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn · W 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Western Washington: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.43 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Western Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (23 labelled days at Western Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →