University of Washington '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.12 (fleet 1.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–12 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 9–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 5–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 14–12 against 12.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-29 | Island Cup | skipper | 1.35 | 4.35 | 4–0 | 3.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 2023-03-04 | Jeff Mixdorf | skipper | 1.09 | 1.76 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.67 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2022-04-16 | Island Cup | skipper | 1.04 | 2.48 | 4–1 | 2.7 | +1.43 | 1.2 | 22% |
| 2022-04-08 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.84 | -0.24 | 1–8 | 2.1 | −1.08 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North | Crew | A | 2 | 6.5 | -0.21 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup JV | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.0 | 0.70 |
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Gorge Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.1 | 2.34 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mark Healy PCCSC Open Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 3 | 15.0 | -0.40 |
| Island Cup | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Gorge Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.3 | 1.14 |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Crew | B | 6 | 8.3 | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 1.64 |
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 0.57 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.7 | 1.49 |
| Cascadia Cup (JV) | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 1.61 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
