| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies 1 | 6–2 |
| 3 | |
University of Washington | Huskies 2 | 5–3 |
| 4 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | 1–7 |
| 5 |  |
University of Oregon | Ducks | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,057 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 20 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.368 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.41 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 86% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 3.68 | 5.00 | 7–1 | 5.5 | +1.31 | 1.2 | 21% |
| 3 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | 3.00 | 3.66 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.67 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | 4.46 | 3.87 | 6–2 | 6.7 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 5 | University of Oregon Ducks | 1.56 | 0.94 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 1.76 | 0.65 | 1–7 | 2.1 | −1.11 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Morrow | Western Washington University | 0.42 | 3.42 | 4–0 | 3.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| Lucas Burzycki | Western Washington University | 1.01 | 2.03 | 3–1 | 2.2 | +1.02 | 0.6 | 37% |
| Maxwell Miller | University of Washington | 1.41 | 2.08 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.67 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Samuel Delasanta | University of Washington | 1.09 | 1.76 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.67 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Malcolm Duncan Graves | Western Washington University | 0.20 | -0.32 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.52 | 0.1 | 85% |
| Aragorn Crozier | University of Washington | 1.63 | 1.04 | 6–2 | 6.7 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Emily Avey | University of Oregon | 0.55 | -0.06 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Sadie Creemer | University of Oregon | -0.36 | -0.97 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Kurtis Johnston | Western Washington University | 0.11 | -2.89 | 0–6 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Ducks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 5–3 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 1 | 5–3 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 2 | 5–3 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 5–3 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Oregon Ducks | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Ducks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 3–5 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 1 | 6–2 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 2 | 6–2 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 3–5 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Oregon Ducks | 1–3 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Huskies 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Huskies 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Vikings 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Ducks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ducks | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Ducks | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | Anna Morrow '23 Dalton Lovett '25 Lucas Burzycki '23 Tyler Nolasco '23 |
Ella Barnard '24 Aliyah Dodge '25 Eric Newell '24 Matthew Lindburg '25 |
|
University of Washington | Huskies 1 | Aragorn Crozier '24 Benjamin Luu '26 Jaden Unruh '26 |
Emily Smith '25 Henry Stier '23 Kaia Armas '25 |
|
University of Washington | Huskies 2 | Jenna Hiegel '25 Maxwell Miller '25 Samuel Delasanta '24 |
Grace Smith '24 Amelia Kau '23 Eitenne Quille '26 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | Kurtis Johnston '26 Malcolm Duncan Graves '24 Nathan Gerber '26 Zoe Plattner '23 |
Lucas Schadewitz '24 Carolyn Harmon '26 Bayard Johnson '27 |
|
University of Oregon | Ducks | Dylan Murphy '26 Emily Avey '25 Sadie Creemer '25 |
Jack Ackell '24 Ethan Heckman '24 Elisabeth Schreiner '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
