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Outlaw Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 32 19 51
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 19 49 68
3 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 48 24 72
4 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 38 42 80
5 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 28 55 83
6 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 61 33 94
7 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 63 67 130
8 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 72 72 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 3 4 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 19 Tyler Nolasco '23 [1-10]
Carolyn Harmon '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Matthew Lindburg '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 8 6 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 28 Kira Blumhagen '24
Ella Barnard '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 2 3 3 3 3 5 3 4 3 3 32 Jaden Unruh '26
Julia Oglevie '26
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 1 1 6 4 6 1 7 3 4 5 38 Emily Avey '25
Aidan Clark '24
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 5 5 4 6 4 6 4 5 5 4 48 Marty Weigel '25 [1-5, 7-10]
Cassius Tossavainen '26 [6]
Elisabeth Grace Diemer '26 [1-5, 7-10]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 4 DNF 5 5 5 4 8 6 8 7 61 Molly Mcleod '25
No Show
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 6 2 7 7 8 7 5 7 6 8 63 Jenna Hiegel '25
Reese Miller '22
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 8 7 6 72 No Show [1-5, 7-10]
Ethan Wickman '25 [6]
No Show [1-5, 7-10]
Aaron Heard '25 [6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 2 2 6 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 19 Benjamin Luu '26
Grace Smith '24
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 3 4 2 4 1 2 2 1 2 3 24 Liam Brinton '22 [1-10]
Connor Heath '24 [1-5, 7-10]
Stella Doehring '25 [6]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 DNS 1 1 2 4 3 4 4 3 2 33 No Show
No Show
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 1 6 3 3 3 6 5 5 5 5 42 Dylan Murphy '26
Ethan Heckman '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 6 7 4 5 6 7 3 3 4 4 49 Leopold Sabharwal '25 [1-10]
Aliyah Dodge '25 [1-2, 5-8]
Kurtis Johnston '26 [3-4, 9-10]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 4 3 5 6 5 5 7 7 7 6 55 Malcolm Duncan Graves '24
Julia Grams '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 5 5 8 7 7 8 6 6 8 7 67 Henry Stier '23
Austin Lai '24
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 7 8 7 8 8 4 8 8 6 8 72 Quincy Spurlock '24 [1-10]
No Show [1-5, 7-10]
Khalia Mork '26 [6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 173737373737373737373
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 274747474747474747474
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 175757575757575757575
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 276767676767676767676
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 181818181818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 282828282828282828282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 16666666666
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 27777777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 173737373737373737373
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 274747474747474747474
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 175757575757575757575
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 276767676767676767676
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 181818181818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 282828282828282828282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 16666666666
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 27777777777

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1011.3 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1011.3 hPa Rain0.19 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn · E 5 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.19)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.32 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 16% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →