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Outlaw Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 5 9 14
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Blue 14 18 32
3 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 22 12 34
4 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 25 35 60
5 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 22 39 61
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking White 43 25 68
7 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 28 48 76
8 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 36 40 76
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Grey 40 42 82
10 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 51 33 84
11 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 56 40 96
12 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 48 55 103
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Benjamin Stone '27
Jaya Wirth '27
Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Blue 5 2 2 2 3 14 Malcolm Duncan Graves '24
Carolyn Harmon '26
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 4 6 3 4 5 22 Aragorn Crozier '24
Maya Outhred '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 8 5 4 3 2 22 Adrian Salamon '24
Enzo Dougherty '27
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 2 3 6 5 9 25 Emily Avey '25
Aidan Clark '24
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 3 4 9 8 4 28 Nikolo Vo '23 [1]
Aaron Heard '25 [2-5]
Aaron Heard '25 [1]
Ethan Wickman '25 [2-5]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 6 8 8 6 8 36 Jaden Unruh '26
Brianne Abbott-Rogge '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Grey 10 12 5 7 6 40 Claire Jablonski '23
Julia Grams '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking White 7 7 10 12 7 43 Mary D’Arcy '26
Ella Barnard '24
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 9 9 11 9 10 48 Rowan Clinch '27
Una Meidav '27
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 11 11 7 10 12 51 Cassius Tossavainen '26 [1]
Marty Weigel '25 [2-5]
Austin Victer '25 [1]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 12 10 12 11 11 56 Molly Mcleod '25
Audrey Lillie '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 4 2 1 1 1 9 Owen Thomas '27 [1-5]
Kirin Dhaka '27 [1-2, 5]
Oliver Nairn '27 [3-4]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 1 3 3 2 3 12 Lucien Freemesser '27
Ethan Eschbach '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Blue 2 1 6 4 5 18 Allison Sasaki '24
Aliyah Dodge '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking White 3 OCS 2 3 4 25 Nathan Gerber '26
Shaynan Montenegro '26
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 7 4 8 7 7 33 Hunter Wheaton '27 [1-5]
Stella Doehring '25 [1]
Claire Laville '27 [2-5]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 5 5 9 8 8 35 Joseph Qualtier '27 [1-5]
Elliot Nopp '25 [1-2, 5]
Ryan Tuttle '27 [3-4]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 8 OCS 4 5 9 39 Jaxon Gordon '25 [1-5]
Jeffrey Kriegh '27 [1-2, 5]
Samyel Macray '26 [3-4]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 10 OCS 5 6 6 40 Sadie Creemer '25
Kate Ryan '25
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 11 8 10 9 2 40 Jenna Hiegel '25
Grace Smith '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Viking Grey 9 6 7 10 10 42 Yuri Berebitsky '27
Kerry Wier '25
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 6 7 11 12 12 48 Teddy Gao '27 [1-5]
Ethan Wickman '25 [1]
Elisabeth Grace Diemer '26 [2-5]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 12 9 12 11 11 55 Ella Notdurft '25
Dylan Zink '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 17575757575
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 277777
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 28282828282
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 48181818181

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 17575757575
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 277777
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 28282828282
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 48181818181
School / Team SkipperCrew
Oregon State University Oregon State University Nikolo Vo '23 [1]
Aaron Heard '25 [2-5]		 Aaron Heard '25 [1]
Ethan Wickman '25 [2-5]
Beavers 1 Teddy Gao '27 [1-5] Ethan Wickman '25 [1]
Elisabeth Grace Diemer '26 [2-5]
Oregon State University Oregon State University Cassius Tossavainen '26 [1]
Marty Weigel '25 [2-5]		 Austin Victer '25 [1]
Beavers 2 Hunter Wheaton '27 [1-5] Stella Doehring '25 [1]
Claire Laville '27 [2-5]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Molly Mcleod '25 Audrey Lillie '26
Ducks 1 Sadie Creemer '25 Kate Ryan '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Emily Avey '25 Aidan Clark '24
Ducks 2 Joseph Qualtier '27 [1-5] Elliot Nopp '25 [1-2, 5]
Ryan Tuttle '27 [3-4]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Rowan Clinch '27 Una Meidav '27
Ducks 3 Ella Notdurft '25 Dylan Zink '27
University of Washington University of Washington Benjamin Stone '27 Jaya Wirth '27
Huskies 1 Owen Thomas '27 [1-5] Kirin Dhaka '27 [1-2, 5]
Oliver Nairn '27 [3-4]
University of Washington University of Washington Adrian Salamon '24 Enzo Dougherty '27
Huskies 2 Lucien Freemesser '27 Ethan Eschbach '25
University of Washington University of Washington Aragorn Crozier '24 Maya Outhred '24
Huskies 3 Jaxon Gordon '25 [1-5] Jeffrey Kriegh '27 [1-2, 5]
Samyel Macray '26 [3-4]
University of Washington University of Washington Jaden Unruh '26 Brianne Abbott-Rogge '25
Huskies 4 Jenna Hiegel '25 Grace Smith '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Malcolm Duncan Graves '24 Carolyn Harmon '26
Viking Blue Allison Sasaki '24 Aliyah Dodge '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Claire Jablonski '23 Julia Grams '24
Viking Grey Yuri Berebitsky '27 Kerry Wier '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Mary D’Arcy '26 Ella Barnard '24
Viking White Nathan Gerber '26 Shaynan Montenegro '26

Conditions — 10/21/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1011.8 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 11.5 kn
From W (269°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine2.4 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1011.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn · NW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.25)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.32 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.25 means a rating gap counts about 22% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →