| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies 2 | 5–1 |
| 1 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | 5–1 |
| 3 | |
University of Washington | Huskies 1 | 5–1 |
| 4 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | 5–4 |
| 5 |  |
University of Oregon | Ducks 1 | 4–5 |
| 6 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | 3–6 |
| 7 | |
University of Oregon | Ducks 2 | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 21,924 team race matches sailed before 2024-02-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.446 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.15 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 2.89 | 4.97 | 6–2 | 3.6 | +2.08 | 3.3 | 4% |
| 3 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | 3.88 | 4.47 | 6–2 | 5.3 | +0.59 | 0.3 | 45% |
| 5 | University of Oregon Ducks 1 | 2.36 | 2.14 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 2.97 | 2.62 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 6 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 2.02 | 1.40 | 3–6 | 3.8 | −0.62 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 1 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | 5.21 | 3.96 | 6–2 | 7.2 | −1.26 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 7 | University of Oregon Ducks 2 | -0.84 | -3.84 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Snell | Western Washington University | 0.61 | 2.69 | 6–2 | 3.6 | +2.08 | 3.3 | 4% |
| Mary D’Arcy | Western Washington University | 1.10 | 3.17 | 6–2 | 3.6 | +2.08 | 3.3 | 4% |
| Anna Morrow | Western Washington University | 0.49 | 2.56 | 6–2 | 3.6 | +2.08 | 3.3 | 4% |
| Aragorn Crozier | University of Washington | 1.57 | 2.05 | 5–2 | 4.5 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Emily Avey | University of Oregon | 1.02 | 0.80 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Joseph Qualtier | University of Oregon | 0.71 | 0.49 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Rowan Clinch | University of Oregon | 0.30 | 0.08 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Maxwell Miller | University of Washington | 1.74 | 1.42 | 3–2 | 3.2 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 84% |
| Malcolm Duncan Graves | Western Washington University | 0.71 | 0.37 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Jack Beeson | Western Washington University | -0.15 | -0.77 | 3–6 | 3.8 | −0.62 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Allison Sasaki | Western Washington University | 0.50 | -0.50 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −1.00 | 0.4 | 94% |
| Sadie Creemer | University of Oregon | 0.04 | -2.96 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies 2 | 10–2 | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 8–10 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 1 | 10–2 | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 8–10 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Oregon Ducks 1 | 3–9 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 8–10 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Oregon Ducks 2 | 3–9 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies 2 | 2–2 | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | L |
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 1–1 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | ✕ |
| University of Washington Huskies 1 | 2–2 | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | L |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 1–1 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | ✕ |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 1–1 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 5–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 5–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Oregon Ducks 1 | 1–5 | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 5–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Oregon Ducks 2 | 1–5 | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Ducks 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Ducks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Vikings 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Huskies 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Ducks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Ducks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Huskies 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Huskies 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Vikings 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Vikings 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Ducks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Vikings 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ducks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Ducks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks 2 | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
