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Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 12 26 38
2 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 50 34 84
3 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 23 63 86
4 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 63 30 93
5 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 82 61 143
6 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 5 62 84 146
7 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 79 93 172
8 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 73 99 172
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 140 67 207
10 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 6 120 92 212
11 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 4 125 99 224
12 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 103 144 247
13 Beavers 1 Beavers 1 Beavers 1 139 109 248
14 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 108 157 265
15 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 126 147 273
16 Beavers 2 Beavers 2 Beavers 2 150 129 279
17 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 127 162 289
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 12 Benjamin Stone '27
Jeffrey Kriegh '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 2 1 2 3 3 3 4 1 2 2 23 Sammy Farkas '27
Jaya Wirth '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 6 3 3 2 5 2 12 7 7 3 50 Emily Smith '25
Julia Oglevie '26
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 5 8 4 6 11 6 6 5 6 4 6 62 Jaden Unruh '26
Matthew Huskins '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 10 7 5 8 2 4 3 3 3 DNS 63 Erin Pamplin '24
Maya Outhred '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 11 6 4 10 9 12 8 4 5 4 73 Ellie Blakemore '27 [1-10]
Aliyah Dodge '25 [1-6]
Shaynan Montenegro '26 [7-10]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 7 10 9 6 14 5 2 11 8 7 79 Dylan Murphy '26 [1-10]
Caitlyn Pagano '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Haley (Mae) Lohf '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 3 5 8 4 17 9 9 16 6 5 82 Mary D’Arcy '25
Faith Burton '26
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 14 8 11 12 4 14 6 5 11 DNF 103 Emily Avey '25
Aidan Clark '24
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 5 12 10 7 10 13 16 DNF 9 8 108 Rowan Clinch '27
Bear Elliot '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 6 9 14 12 15 7 8 11 8 DNS DNS 120 Kieran Lyons '26 [1-6, 9-10]
Oliver Sommer '27 [7-8]
Jenna Hiegel '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 4 12 9 16 9 8 16 7 12 DNS DNS 125 Allison Sasaki '24
Yuri Berebitsky '27
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 4 17 14 5 15 7 DNS 10 DNS DNS 126 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
Cassidy Murray '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 BYE 11 7 14 11 11 15 9 DNS DNS 127 Andrew Keller '23
Stella Potter '26
Beavers 1 Beavers 1 Beavers 1 DNF 16 17 16 12 10 14 15 12 9 139
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 13 13 13 13 13 15 10 14 DNS DNS 140 Cooper Snell '24
Calvin Blaser '25
Beavers 2 Beavers 2 Beavers 2 15 15 15 17 16 DNF 13 13 10 DNS 150
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 4 3 1 2 1 1 8 3 1 2 26 Oliver Nairn '27
Stephanie Seto '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 1 2 3 7 2 4 1 1 2 7 30 Lucien Freemesser '27 [1-10]
Allegra Mcalpin '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Brianne Abbott-Rogge '25 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 2 1 4 1 12 2 2 2 7 1 34 Maxwell Miller '25 [1-10]
Tillie Jane Leroy '27 [1-6, 9-10]
Samyel Macray '26 [7-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 9 5 8 5 7 9 4 5 6 3 61 Nathan Gerber '26
Kerry Wier '25
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 3 13 2 8 5 3 10 9 4 6 63 Aragorn Crozier '24 [1-10]
Grace Smith '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ethan Eschbach '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 10 4 7 10 8 13 3 4 3 5 67 Kurtis Johnston '26
Cora Gunderson '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 5 5 6 5 4 3 6 13 6 DNS DNS 84 Thomas Pentimonti '24
Judah Wong '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 6 15 7 11 11 4 10 6 8 11 9 92 Jaxon Gordon '25
Renee Chien '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 14 8 9 6 11 5 12 10 8 10 93 Joseph Qualtier '27
Una Meidav '27
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 4 6 DNF 10 3 9 8 DNF DNS 5 4 99 Jack Beeson '26
Lucas Schadewitz '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 12 9 13 12 6 7 11 12 9 8 99 Anna Morrow '25
Ella Barnard '24
Beavers 1 Beavers 1 Beavers 1 8 11 6 13 10 11 7 13 12 DNS 109
Beavers 2 Beavers 2 Beavers 2 11 10 14 14 14 14 5 11 DNS DNS 129
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 7 DNF 12 9 17 12 DNS 15 DNS DNS 144 Sadie Creemer '25
Kate Ryan '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 16 12 17 17 16 17 9 7 DNS DNS 147 Bella Valente '24
Anna Potapenko '24
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 17 DNF 15 15 13 15 DNS DNS 10 DNF 157 Dylan Zink '27
Audrey Lillie '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 13 DNF 16 16 15 16 DNS 14 DNS DNS 162 Grace Richie '24
Laurence Mach '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Beavers 2Beavers 2 Beavers 276767676767676767676
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 116161616161616161616
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 278787878787878787878
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 181818181818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 282828282828282828282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 187878787878787878787

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Beavers 2Beavers 2 Beavers 276767676767676767676
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 116161616161616161616
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 278787878787878787878
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 181818181818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 282828282828282828282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 187878787878787878787
School / Team SkipperCrew
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Andrew Keller '23 Stella Potter '26
Tritons 1 Grace Richie '24 Laurence Mach '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Audra Spokas-Jaros '25 Cassidy Murray '24
Tritons 2 Bella Valente '24 Anna Potapenko '24
University of Oregon University of Oregon Rowan Clinch '27 Bear Elliot '27
Ducks 1 Dylan Zink '27 Audrey Lillie '26
University of Oregon University of Oregon Emily Avey '25 Aidan Clark '24
Ducks 2 Sadie Creemer '25 Kate Ryan '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Dylan Murphy '26 [1-10] Caitlyn Pagano '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Haley (Mae) Lohf '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Ducks 3 Joseph Qualtier '27 Una Meidav '27
University of Washington University of Washington Benjamin Stone '27 Jeffrey Kriegh '27
Huskies 1 Oliver Nairn '27 Stephanie Seto '27
University of Washington University of Washington Erin Pamplin '24 Maya Outhred '24
Huskies 2 Lucien Freemesser '27 [1-10] Allegra Mcalpin '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Brianne Abbott-Rogge '25 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Washington University of Washington Emily Smith '25 Julia Oglevie '26
Huskies 3 Maxwell Miller '25 [1-10] Tillie Jane Leroy '27 [1-6, 9-10]
Samyel Macray '26 [7-8]
University of Washington University of Washington Sammy Farkas '27 Jaya Wirth '27
Huskies 4 Aragorn Crozier '24 [1-10] Grace Smith '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ethan Eschbach '25 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Washington University of Washington Jaden Unruh '26 Matthew Huskins '27
Huskies 5 Thomas Pentimonti '24 Judah Wong '24
University of Washington University of Washington Kieran Lyons '26 [1-6, 9-10]
Oliver Sommer '27 [7-8]		 Jenna Hiegel '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Huskies 6 Jaxon Gordon '25 Renee Chien '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Ellie Blakemore '27 [1-10] Aliyah Dodge '25 [1-6]
Shaynan Montenegro '26 [7-10]
Vikings 1 Anna Morrow '25 Ella Barnard '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Mary D’Arcy '25 Faith Burton '26
Vikings 2 Nathan Gerber '26 Kerry Wier '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Cooper Snell '24 Calvin Blaser '25
Vikings 3 Kurtis Johnston '26 Cora Gunderson '27
Western Washington University Western Washington University Allison Sasaki '24 Yuri Berebitsky '27
Vikings 4 Jack Beeson '26 Lucas Schadewitz '24

Conditions — 05/11/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1013.7 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.4 kn
avg  ·  max 3.2 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From WSW (253°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1013.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn · SW 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Western Washington: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Western Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (23 labelled days at Western Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →