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Gorge Invite — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2024-W19). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,445 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

Division A  17 boats · 10 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Benjamin Stone '27 University of Washington Huskies 1 10/10 312* 551 +238 87th → 99th 9.9 1% 1.2 / 3.9 314*
2 Sammy Farkas '27 University of Washington Huskies 4 10/10 173* 367 +193 63rd → 93rd 12.3 <1% 2.3 / 7.3 172*
3 Emily Smith '25 University of Washington Huskies 3 10/10 152* 213 +62 59th → 72nd 1.9 6% 5.0 / 8.0 151*
4 Jaden Unruh '26 University of Washington Huskies 5 10/10 110* 192 +83 49th → 68th 3.3 6% 6.2 / 9.4 111*
5 Erin Pamplin '24 University of Washington Huskies 2 10/10 208* 222 +15 71st → 73rd 0.1 54% 6.3 / 6.3 209*
6 Ellie Blakemore '27 Western Washington University Vikings 1 10/10 148* 158 +11 57th → 60th 0.1 40% 7.3 / 8.1 148*
7 Dylan Murphy '26 University of Oregon Ducks 3 10/10 116* 137 +21 51st → 55th 0.3 34% 7.9 / 9.2 115*
8 Mary D’Arcy '25 Western Washington University Vikings 2 10/10 159* 90 -69 60th → 44th 2.7 56% 8.2 / 7.9 158*
9 Emily Avey '25 University of Oregon Ducks 2 10/10 128* 93 -35 53rd → 45th 0.7 78% 10.3 / 8.8 126*
10 Rowan Clinch '27 University of Oregon Ducks 1 10/10 34* 77 +43 31st → 41st 0.8 37% 10.8 / 11.5 34*
11 Kieran Lyons '26 University of Washington Huskies 6 8/10 89* 94 +5 44th → 45th 0.0 89% 12.6 / 9.9 88*
11 Oliver Sommer '27 University of Washington Huskies 6 2/10 84* 128 +44 43rd → 53rd 0.2 46% 9.5 / 10.1 88*
12 Allison Sasaki '24 Western Washington University Vikings 4 10/10 39* 68 +29 32nd → 40th 0.3 67% 12.5 / 11.3 39*
13 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 10/10 34* 76 +42 31st → 41st 0.6 64% 12.6 / 11.6 35*
14 Andrew Keller '23 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 10/10 48* 86 +38 34th → 43rd 0.6 77% 13.2 / 11.3 49*
16 Cooper Snell '24 Western Washington University Vikings 3 10/10 86* 55 -31 43rd → 36th 0.5 95% 14.0 / 10.0 74*

Division B  17 boats · 10 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Oliver Nairn '27 University of Washington Huskies 1 10/10 243* 313 +70 76th → 87th 2.0 11% 2.6 / 4.8 244*
2 Lucien Freemesser '27 University of Washington Huskies 2 10/10 239* 276 +37 76th → 82nd 0.6 16% 3.0 / 4.9 239*
3 Maxwell Miller '25 University of Washington Huskies 3 10/10 239* 236 -3 76th → 75th 0.0 16% 3.4 / 4.9 239*
4 Nathan Gerber '26 Western Washington University Vikings 2 10/10 164* 173 +8 61st → 63rd 0.0 37% 6.1 / 6.8 164*
5 Aragorn Crozier '24 University of Washington Huskies 4 10/10 170* 126 -44 63rd → 53rd 1.0 44% 6.3 / 6.7 167*
6 Kurtis Johnston '26 Western Washington University Vikings 3 10/10 77* 148 +72 41st → 58th 2.5 14% 6.7 / 9.3 86*
7 Thomas Pentimonti '24 University of Washington Huskies 5 10/10 184* 153 -31 66th → 59th 0.4 90% 8.4 / 6.3 178*
8 Jaxon Gordon '25 University of Washington Huskies 6 10/10 68* 66 -2 40th → 39th 0.0 47% 9.2 / 9.4 68*
9 Joseph Qualtier '27 University of Oregon Ducks 3 10/10 96* 71 -25 46th → 40th 0.4 59% 9.3 / 8.8 91*
10 Anna Morrow '25 Western Washington University Vikings 1 10/10 56* 70 +14 36th → 40th 0.1 51% 9.9 / 9.8 57*
10 Jack Beeson '26 Western Washington University Vikings 4 10/10 -8* 173 +181 23rd → 63rd 9.1 23% 9.9 / 11.6 4*
14 Sadie Creemer '25 University of Oregon Ducks 2 10/10 -9* -56 -47 22nd → 14th 0.5 96% 14.4 / 11.6 -8*
15 Bella Valente '24 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 10/10 -93* -119 -26 8th → 5th 0.2 70% 14.7 / 13.4 -93*
16 Dylan Zink '27 University of Oregon Ducks 1 10/10 -36* -67 -31 17th → 12th 0.3 98% 15.7 / 12.2 -36*
17 Grace Richie '24 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 10/10 -108* -76 +32 6th → 11th 0.3 92% 16.2 / 13.8 -107*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →