Husky Women's Fleet Race 2

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 47
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 74
3 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 95
4 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 126
5 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 153
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings A 1 1 2 1 4 1 3 1 1 15 Kira Blumhagen '24
Ella Barnard '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 A 4 4 4 2 1 2 1 2 2 22 Erin Pamplin '24
Maya Outhred '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 B 3 2 1 4 2 4 2 4 3 25 Emily Smith '25
Julia Oglevie '26
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 B 2 3 3 10 3 3 6 3 8 41 Autumn Vandehey '23
Grace Smith '24
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 A 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 5 4 54 Sarah Kahle '22
Amelia Kau '23
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks B 6 9 5 5 5 6 9 6 6 57 Emily Avey '25 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Sadie Creemer '25 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Sadie Creemer '25 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Emily Avey '25 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings B 7 6 7 7 9 7 4 7 5 59 Anna Morrow '24 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Caroline Hurley '25 [2, 4, 6, 8-9]
Caroline Hurley '25 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Anna Morrow '24 [2, 4, 6, 8-9]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks A 9 7 9 9 8 5 7 8 7 69 Molly Mcleod '25 [1-9]
Kate Ryan '25 [1-2, 5-9]
Elisabeth Schreiner '25 [3-4]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 A 10 10 8 3 10 9 5 10 10 75 Willow Hoins '25
Kaia Armas '25
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 B 8 8 10 8 6 10 10 9 9 78 Lauren Mcclintock '25
Kathleen Brengman '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks111111111
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 1222222222
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 2333333333
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 3444444444
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings555555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks666666666
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 1777777777
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 2888888888
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 3999999999
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings101010101010101010
School / Team SkipperCrew
University of Oregon University of Oregon Molly Mcleod '25 [1-9] Kate Ryan '25 [1-2, 5-9]
Elisabeth Schreiner '25 [3-4]
Ducks Emily Avey '25 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Sadie Creemer '25 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Sadie Creemer '25 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Emily Avey '25 [2, 4, 6, 8]
University of Washington University of Washington Erin Pamplin '24 Maya Outhred '24
Huskies 1 Emily Smith '25 Julia Oglevie '26
University of Washington University of Washington Sarah Kahle '22 Amelia Kau '23
Huskies 2 Autumn Vandehey '23 Grace Smith '24
University of Washington University of Washington Willow Hoins '25 Kaia Armas '25
Huskies 3 Lauren Mcclintock '25 Kathleen Brengman '26
Western Washington University Western Washington University Kira Blumhagen '24 Ella Barnard '24
Vikings Anna Morrow '24 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Caroline Hurley '25 [2, 4, 6, 8-9]
Caroline Hurley '25 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Anna Morrow '24 [2, 4, 6, 8-9]

Conditions — 02/12/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

38°F
↑ 40°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1016.4 hPa Rain0.26 in Snow0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Washington: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.44 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (37 labelled days at Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →