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(Day 2) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 1 2 1 1 7 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26
Isabelle Mcnabb '26
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 2 3 4 3 2 2 16 Sophie Fisher '26 [1-2]
Hannah Freeman '24 [3-6]
Ellie Harned '26 [1-5]
Sophie Fisher '26 [6]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 6 8 3 4 6 8 35 Kingsley Ehrich '23
Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 3 13 7 5 5 7 40 Molly Coghlin '25
Kaitlin Chan '23
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 7 9 6 1 13 5 41 Morgan Carew '25 [1-2]
Mercy Tangredi '25 [3-6]
Anna Kalabukhova '24 [1-2]
Taylor Ledgerwood '23 [3-6]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 5 6 10 6 10 4 41 Vivian Bonsager '25
Sophia Shaeffer '25
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 9 4 9 8 9 3 42 Erin Pamplin '24
Maya Outhred '24
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 8 2 2 11 11 11 45 Marianna Shand '24 [1-6]
Linnea Jackson '25 [1-2]
Ariana Rassouli '23 [3-6]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs A 16 5 8 10 4 6 49 Morgan Burton '23
Charlotte Hinman '22
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings A 4 10 5 7 15 10 51 Kira Blumhagen '24
Ella Barnard '24
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 12 7 11 12 8 9 59 Katherine Olsen '25 [1-6]
Rosie Ward '23 [1-4, 6]
Tessa Greene '26 [5]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 11 16 14 9 3 12 65 Emily Smith '25 [1-6]
Autumn Vandehey '23 [1-2]
Amelia Kau '23 [3-6]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings B 13 11 12 13 17 13 79 Anna Morrow '23 [1-6]
Annelisa Ayars '24 [1-3]
Aliyah Dodge '25 [4-6]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 10 12 15 17 16 15 85 Ximena Greatorex '25
Emily Yong '25
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 18 18 17 14 7 14 88 Ariana Rassouli '23 [1-2]
Linnea Jackson '25 [3-6]
Teresa Dang '24 [1-2]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 14 17 13 18 12 18 92 Florence Duff '25
Chloe Schofield '23
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 15 14 16 16 14 17 92 Elizabeth Fourney '26
Lekha Sapers '24
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs B 17 15 18 15 18 16 99 Tegan Smith '24
Liza Veselova '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears444444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows777777
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs222222
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal333333
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins555555
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos666666
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies888888
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears131313131313
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs101010101010
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows161616161616
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs111111111111
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal121212121212
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins141414141414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos151515151515
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies171717171717
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings181818181818

Conditions — 10/30/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1019.3 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From NNW (334°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1019.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →