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(Day 1) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26 [1-9]
Isabelle Mcnabb '26 [1-5]
Anaclare Sole '23 [6-9]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 5 2 4 4 2 2 5 2 2 28 Ellie Harned '26 [1-5]
Sophie Fisher '26 [6-9]
Sophie Fisher '26 [1-5]
Abigail Tindall '23 [6-9]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 2 4 11 7 5 5 2 4 3 43 Mercy Tangredi '25
Taylor Ledgerwood '23
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 4 6 7 3 4 4 4 8 4 44 Vivian Bonsager '25
Sophia Shaeffer '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 7 3 6 15 3 3 3 10 11 61 Kingsley Ehrich '23 [1-9]
Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26 [1-8]
Iesha Carter '23 [9]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 6 10 2 2 14 8 6 15 6 69 Molly Coghlin '25
Kaitlin Chan '23
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 3 5 3 5 12 7 16 17 10 78 Marianna Shand '24 [1-9]
Teresa Dang '24 [1-4]
Ariana Rassouli '23 [5-9]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 8 12 9 9 11 13 7 3 7 79 Erin Pamplin '24
Maya Outhred '24
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 11 8 16 6 10 6 9 9 5 80 Katherine Olsen '25
Tessa Greene '26
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs A 9 9 17 10 7 11 8 5 15 91 Morgan Burton '23
Charlotte Hinman '22
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 12 7 10 17 13 9 RAF 7 8 102 Emily Smith '25 [1-9]
Amelia Kau '23 [1-5]
Autumn Vandehey '23 [6-9]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 10 18 14 8 6 12 13 11 16 108 Elizabeth Fourney '26
Lekha Sapers '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings A 14 11 8 13 9 15 12 14 14 110 Kira Blumhagen '24
Ella Barnard '24
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings B 13 14 5 11 18 18 10 6 17 112 Anna Morrow '23 [1-9]
Aliyah Dodge '25 [1-3, 7-9]
Annelisa Ayars '24 [4-6]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 17 13 15 14 8 10 11 16 9 113 Florence Duff '25
Chloe Schofield '23
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 18 17 13 16 15 14 14 12 13 132 Linnea Jackson '25 [1-9]
Ariana Rassouli '23 [1-4]
Teresa Dang '24 [5-9]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 15 16 18 12 17 16 15 13 18 140 Ximena Greatorex '25
Emily Yong '25
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs B 16 15 12 18 16 17 17 18 12 141 Tegan Smith '24
Liza Veselova '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears444444444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs111111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows777777777
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs222222222
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal333333333
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins555555555
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos666666666
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies888888888
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears131313131313131313
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs101010101010101010
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows161616161616161616
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs111111111111111111
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal121212121212121212
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins141414141414141414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos151515151515151515
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies171717171717171717
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings181818181818181818

Conditions — 10/29/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1023.4 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From NW (314°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1023.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →