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Outlaw Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 12 15 27
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 14 14 28
3 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 38 40 78
4 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 40 39 79
5 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 60 22 82
6 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 31 53 84
7 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 48 46 94
8 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 49 61 110
9 Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs 69 77 146
10 Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Zags 80 82 162
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 12 Leif Hauge '28
Yuri Berebitsky '27
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 14 Alexander Turloff '27
Calvin Blaser '25
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 5 3 4 6 2 3 3 5 31 Jaden Unruh '26 [1-8]
Nathan Turner '27 [1-2, 5-8]
Ayana Owen '28 [3-4]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 3 5 3 5 5 4 6 7 38 Anna Morrow '25
Erica Stavnem '28
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 6 6 5 3 7 5 4 4 40 Cassius Tossavainen '26
Aaron Heard '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 7 7 6 9 4 8 5 2 48 Rowan Clinch '27
Olivia Atkins '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 4 4 7 4 6 9 7 8 49 Molly Mcleod '25
Elaina Berdyck '26
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 8 8 8 8 8 6 8 6 60 Emily Harding '28
Euseekers Williams '28
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs 9 9 10 7 9 7 9 9 69 Kevin Mcgann '25 [1-8]
Addie Belcher '25 [1-2]
Anita Shields '25 [3-8]
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Zags DNF 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 80 Spencer Patten '27 [1-8]
Brianne Mckenna '28 [1-2, 5-8]
Grace Lavigne '26 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 1 1 14 Adam Turloff '27
Kerry Wier '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 2 2 15 Mary D’Arcy '26
Faith Burton '26
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 3 3 1 3 2 3 4 3 22 Emily Avey '25
Melina Holmes '27
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 6 5 5 5 4 6 3 5 39 Hunter Wheaton '27 [1-8]
Gabriella Platt '25 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Theo Everson '29 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 5 4 6 6 5 4 6 4 40 Hans Scheyer '28
Ella Barnard '24
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 4 6 2 4 6 8 8 8 46 Dylan Zink '27
Annika Sanschagrin '28
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 8 7 7 7 8 5 5 6 53 Nathaniel Rubin '28
Ayana Owen '28
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 7 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 61 Ryan Tuttle '27
Nathan Berger '27
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs DNF 10 9 9 7 9 DNS DNS 77 Jacey Larock '28 [1-8]
Grace Lavigne '26 [1-2]
Addie Belcher '25 [3-8]
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Zags DNF 9 10 10 10 10 DNS DNS 82 Nicholas Novotny '25 [1-8]
Eleanor Vander Wall '25 [1-4]
Grace Lavigne '26 [5-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 18787878787878787

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 18787878787878787

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1022.9 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.0 kn
avg  ·  max 3.3 kn
Gusts to 7.0 kn
From WSW (255°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1022.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 5 kn · SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.20)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 18% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →