Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 89.31 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.085 rating points from 296 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | Western Washington University | 1.95 | 63.51 | 83.33 | 2 of 9 | 23 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Western Washington University | 1.90 | 62.39 | 90.00 | 2 of 15 | 33 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Western Washington University | 2.12 | 63.57 | 94.44 | 1 of 9 | 22 | Team page | |
| Spring 2023 | Western Washington University | 1.62 | 52.30 | 94.44 | 1 of 9 | 41 | Team page | |
| Fall 2022 | Western Washington University | 1.82 | 57.41 | 95.83 | 1 of 12 | 44 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.44 (fleet 0.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–3 (0%) as crew 3–14 (18%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 0–3 | 1–2 |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 1–7 |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 1–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 3–17 against 7.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-12 | Seattle Team Race | skipper | -0.10 | -3.10 | 0–3 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| 2019-10-12 | Seattle Team Race | crew | -0.10 | 0.64 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.74 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 2019-03-16 | Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | crew | 0.79 | -1.19 | 1–7 | 2.9 | −1.97 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2018-03-24 | Oak Harbor Team Race | crew | 0.59 | -1.58 | 1–5 | 2.6 | −2.17 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| NWISA North Regionals | Crew | B | 4 | 8.8 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Ella Barnard |  Western Washington University |
'24 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Garfield High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Roosevelt High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Ingraham High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Inglemoor High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Nathan Hale High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ella Barnard |  Lycee Francais de Chicago |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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