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Gaucho Fall Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 13–0
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 10–3
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 7–6
4 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3–10
5 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3–7
6 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,877 team race matches sailed before 2021-11-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 36 matches (97%) with a log-loss of 0.130 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.44 ± 0.29: an orderly event, more orderly than 88% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		110.44
school +0.43		Jack Parkin / Abigail Tindall 3.80 11–0
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Patricia Gerli 3.52 11–0
Hannah Freeman / Gwendolyn Donahue 2.77 10–0
Justin Lim / Mathew Hogan 2.94 7–0		94%13–0 (100%)+0.8
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 1		29.22
school −0.11, home +0.36		David Eastwood / Sydney Aguirre 3.22
Chris Kayda / Kyla Murphy 2.95
Lukas Kraak / Julia Roudebush		75%10–3 (77%)+0.3
3University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 2		38.03
school −0.11, home +0.36		Sidney Gathrid / Molly Coghlin 2.84
Jake Zieba / Juliet St. Germain 2.46
David Alexander / Grace Forgea		57%7–6 (54%)−0.4
4University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 3		46.07
school −0.11, home +0.36		Ted Mcdonough / Joshua Pelletier
Schuyler Capita / Jasper Reid
Tristan Richmond / Harriet Jessup 1.55		29%3–10 (23%)−0.8
5California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		55.08
school +0.13		Clay Myers / Etienne Quille
Conner Skewes / Cyrus Khaleeli
Ryan Downey / Lucas Kennedy		23%3–7 (30%)+0.7
6Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		63.70
school +0.18		Kai Ponting / Peyton Nienaber 2.10
Max Case / Corey Quillen
Jack Kelly / Travis Bouck		6%0–10 (0%)−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University Cardinal10.4413.4413–012.2≥+3.001.340%
5California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers5.085.823–72.3+0.740.441%
2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 19.229.4510–39.7+0.240.060%
3University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 28.037.697–67.4−0.340.181%
4University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 36.075.313–103.8−0.760.491%
6Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs3.700.700–100.6≤−3.000.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Hannah FreemanStanford University2.775.7710–09.4≥+3.001.049%
Telis Athanasopoulos YogoStanford University3.526.5311–010.2≥+3.001.240%
Ryan DowneyCalifornia Maritime Academy1.572.313–72.3+0.740.441%
Sidney GathridUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.842.507–67.4−0.340.181%
David AlexanderUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.201.867–67.4−0.340.181%
Ted McdonoughUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.001.243–103.8−0.760.491%
Jack KellyCal Poly University S.L.O.-0.07-3.070–100.6≤−3.000.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers96%
12University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 397%
13Stanford University CardinalCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs100%
14University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers99%
15University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs99%
16Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 399%
17University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs100%
18California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 327%upset
19Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 294%
110University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs91%
111University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 277%
112Stanford University CardinalCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers99%
113University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 388%
114California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs80%
115Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 181%
216University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 388%
217California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs81%
218Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 181%
219University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers94%
220Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 399%
221University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs100%
222Stanford University CardinalCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers99%
223University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs99%
224University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 396%
225Stanford University CardinalCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs100%
226University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers70%
227University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 277%
228University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs92%
229Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 293%
230University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers98%
431University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 277%
432Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 399%
433University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 396%
434Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 293%
435University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 387%
436Stanford University CardinalUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 180%

Round 1

TeamRec.Cardinal123KeelhaulersMustangs
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 18–7L✕✕✕LW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 28–7L✕✕✕LW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 38–7L✕✕✕LW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers2–3LWWW✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.Cardinal123KeelhaulersMustangs
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 19–6L✕✕✕WW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 29–6L✕✕✕WW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 39–6L✕✕✕WW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1–4LLLL✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs0–5LLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.Cardinal123
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 13–6L✕✕✕
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 23–6L✕✕✕
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 33–6L✕✕✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
2 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-5
3 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
4 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
5 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
6 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 4-5-6
7 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
8 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 2-4-6
9 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 4-5-6
10 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 3-4-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
13 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-3-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 2-4-5
14 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
15 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 3-5-6
16 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-6
17 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
18 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 4-5-6
19 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
20 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 4-5-6
21 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
22 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
23 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
24 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-6
25 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
26 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
27 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 4-5-6
28 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
29 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 3-4-5
30 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
31 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 3-4-6
32 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-5-6
33 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 4-5-6
34 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 3-4-5
35 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-5-6
36 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 3-4-5

Conditions — 11/06/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1017.0 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.6 kn
avg  ·  max 4.0 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1017.0 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →