Cal Poly University S.L.O. '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.03 (fleet -0.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–10 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 0–10 against 0.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-06 | Gaucho Fall Team Race | skipper | -0.07 | -3.07 | 0–10 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.2 | 0.36 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 7.1 | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.2 | 0.34 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.9 | -2.12 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 20.1 | -0.59 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.1 | -0.40 |
| Gaucho Fall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 6.1 | — |
| Mustang Open JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | -0.64 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.0 | -0.15 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 20.4 | -0.28 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 11 | 15.2 | -1.22 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | B | 9 | 20.8 | -0.94 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Champs - JV | Skipper | A | 9 | 17.8 | -1.25 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 29.8 | -0.94 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
