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Stoney Burke Women's Varsity

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears 22 19 41
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 20 27 47
3 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses 55 45 100
4 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 50 52 102
5 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 62 57 119
6 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 66 75 141
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 20 Molly Coghlin '25
Juliet St. Germain '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 22 Kingsley Ehrich '23 [1-13]
Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26 [1-2, 8-13]
Fiona Wu '25 [3-7]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 5 DNF 5 3 4 3 3 3 4 2 4 3 50 Florence Duff '25
Chloe Schofield '23
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses 3 DNF 4 3 4 3 4 4 6 3 4 5 5 55 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
Cassie Halaszynski '25
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 6 3 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 62 Althea White '25 [1-13]
Lola Rao '24 [1-8]
Francesca Alatorre '23 [9-13]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 5 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 4 6 6 1 6 66 Scarlett Dawson '26 [1-13]
Cecilia Rothman-Salado '24 [1-6, 13]
Ezri Jarman '25 [7-12]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears 1 1 4 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 19 Katherine Olsen '25
Tessa Greene '26
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 5 2 2 2 3 27 Elizabeth Fourney '26
Lekha Sapers '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses 3 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 5 3 4 45 Rita Usmanova '23
Bella Valente '24
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 OCS 2 2 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 4 2 52 Macy Rowe '23
Mira Shupe '26
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 5 3 3 OCS 4 4 6 4 3 4 4 5 5 57 Summer Drake '26
Eliza Murrell '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 75 Melody Quevedo '23
Blossom Jee '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Mama Bears24242424242424242424242424
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies48484848484848484848484848
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses30303030303030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women31313131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs33333333333333333333333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Mama Bears24242424242424242424242424
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies48484848484848484848484848
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses30303030303030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women31313131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs33333333333333333333333333

Conditions — 10/08/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From SW (234°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1018.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 14 kn · SW 9 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Berkeley: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →