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Bryson Women's (day 1)

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 12 Alice Schmid '27
Grace Austin '24
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 6 2 2 1 2 1 1 15 Sophie Fisher '26
Shay Wood '27
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 2 5 3 3 3 3 5 24 Mercy Tangredi '25
Morgan Carew '25
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 3 10 5 5 6 7 4 40 Molly Coghlin '25
Mia Kotelec '25
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 4 1 7 7 DNF 4 3 41 Vivian Bonsager '25 [1-5]
Malia Johnson '25 [6-7]
Malia Johnson '25 [1-3]
Sophia Shaeffer '25 [4-7]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 5 11 8 4 8 5 6 47 Juliet St. Germain '25
Cristina Jackson '26
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 11 6 4 6 9 6 10 52 Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26
Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 7 7 6 9 5 8 12 54 Emily Smith '25 [1-7]
Maya Outhred '24 [1-6]
Tillie Jane Leroy '27 [7]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 8 9 9 8 10 9 7 60 Erin Pamplin '24
Julia Oglevie '26
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 9 8 13 10 4 10 8 62 Katherine Olsen '25
Zoe Flemate '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils A 10 4 10 12 7 11 11 65 Sadie Hoberman '25
Gillian Cate '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons A 12 12 12 11 11 DNS 9 82 Cassie Halaszynski '25
Cassidy Murray '24
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils B 14 13 11 13 DNF 12 DNF 93 Erin Welker '27
Samantha George '27
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons B 13 14 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 102 Alex Bussey '25
Liza Churkov '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (33 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils1111111
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears3333333
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows6666666
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal2222222
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons4444444
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos5555555
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies8888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils9999999
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears11111111111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows14141414141414
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal10101010101010
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons12121212121212
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos13131313131313
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies16161616161616

Conditions — 02/17/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1013.4 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.8 kn
Gusts to 27.0 kn
From SSE (160°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine1.2 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1013.4 hPa Rain0.53 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →