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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 29 14 43
2 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 28 45 73
3 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 56 32 88
4 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 43 56 99
5 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 66 33 99
6 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 65 45 110
7 California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 20 95 115
8 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 66 65 131
9 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 84 63 147
10 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 90 62 152
11 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 59 95 154
12 Aztecs Aztecs Aztecs 73 MRP 86 MRP 159 MRP
13 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 93 73 166
14 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 96 117 213
15 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 116 98 214
16 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 146 MRP 147 MRP 293 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 5 5 2 2 2 1 1 20 Nicholas Mueller '27
Mateo Krok '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 7 2 1 1 3 4 8 2 28 Luke Harris '27
Ava Bergan '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 4 3 2 10 1 1 2 6 29 Davis Winsor '24
Cara Loo '24
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 5 1 8 6 9 5 4 5 43 Sterling Maggard '27
Adalia Jimenez '25
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 8 6 6 7 6 7 13 3 56 Blake Roberts '25 [1-8]
Carter Anderson '27 [1-4]
Lucas Elliott '25 [5-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 9 4 7 13 5 11 3 7 59 Brendan O'Connor '27
Liza Churkov '25
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 3 10 3 8 10 DSQ 10 4 65 Andrew Ring '25
Vienna Lopez '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 1 12 13 5 13 6 5 11 66 Jackson Mckinley '26
Breeze Pickford '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 6 11 15 4 7 3 11 9 66 Garrett Henderson '27 [1-8]
Paige O’Dell '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Lovejoy '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Aztecs Aztecs Aztecs 11 8 4 3 4 9 6 8 73 MRP
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 10 14 9 12 12 8 9 10 84 Robert Bloomfield '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Samuel Groom '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Mira Shupe '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Maura Darby '25 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 12 7 10 14 15 12 7 13 90 Adam Leddy '25
Sriskandha Kandimalla '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 14 13 11 9 8 10 14 14 93 Mitchell Powers '25
Jaquelyn Quintana '25
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 13 9 14 11 11 14 12 12 96 Braedon Hansen '25
Nicholas Conti '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 15 15 12 15 14 13 DSQ 15 116 Andrew Keller '23
Tean Brooks '24
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 16 146 MRP Chase Vanderveer '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 14 Hudson Mayfield '27
Ariana Gabier '24
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 11 8 32 Colin Olson '26
Conor Kim '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 6 7 5 3 1 6 4 1 33 Jack Kisling '25 [1-8]
Sarah Kate Mcelroy '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Simone Karlon '27 [3-6]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 3 4 1 9 5 4 2 DNF 45 Morgana Manti '26
Ainslie Pratt '27
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 13 6 7 5 4 5 3 2 45 Lucas Elliott '25 [1-4]
Carter Anderson '27 [5-8]
Caden Domingo '27 [1-4]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 10 3 4 6 10 8 10 5 56 Brandon Stadtherr '24
Seraphee De Labaca '26
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 8 10 6 7 6 7 9 9 62 Arin Bekem '26
Thu Vo '24
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 4 5 14 12 BKD 2 8 10 63 Florence Duff '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ximena Greatorex '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Claire Wiley '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Paulina Williams '26 [3-6]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 5 15 8 4 12 9 6 6 65 Edward Ansart '24
Anthony Torrez '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 11 9 12 10 8 11 5 7 73 Gavin Hirz '26
Patrick Gardiner '26
Aztecs Aztecs Aztecs 7 12 9 8 7 12 7 4 86 MRP
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 12 13 11 13 9 13 12 12 95 Sean Lipps '24
Johnathan Garcia '26
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 14 8 13 11 13 10 13 13 95 Christopher Shintani '25
Kayleigh Andres '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 9 11 10 15 14 14 14 11 98 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
Cheyenne Ozaeta '27
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 15 14 15 14 15 15 15 14 117 Alexander Lohan '24
Blossom Jee '25
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 147 MRP Chase Vanderveer '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils4040404040404040
California Poly Maritime AcademyCalifornia Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers101101101101101101101101
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 133333333
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 244444444
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins110110110110110110110110
AztecsAztecs Aztecs1616161616161616
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos1919191919191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1137137137137137137137137
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 23737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 3138138138138138138138138
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies148148148148148148148148
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters2626262626262626
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 12929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 23030303030303030
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1133133133133133133133133
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 23434343434343434

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils4040404040404040
California Poly Maritime AcademyCalifornia Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers101101101101101101101101
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 133333333
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 244444444
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins110110110110110110110110
AztecsAztecs Aztecs1616161616161616
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos1919191919191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1137137137137137137137137
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 23737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 3138138138138138138138138
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies148148148148148148148148
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters2626262626262626
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 12929292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 23030303030303030
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1133133133133133133133133
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 23434343434343434
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Mitchell Powers '25 Jaquelyn Quintana '25
Sun Devils Gavin Hirz '26 Patrick Gardiner '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Robert Bloomfield '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Samuel Groom '24 [3-4, 7-8]		 Mira Shupe '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Maura Darby '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Mustangs 1 Florence Duff '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ximena Greatorex '25 [3-4, 7-8]		 Claire Wiley '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Paulina Williams '26 [3-6]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Garrett Henderson '27 [1-8] Paige O’Dell '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Lovejoy '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Mustangs 2 Jack Kisling '25 [1-8] Sarah Kate Mcelroy '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Simone Karlon '27 [3-6]
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Nicholas Mueller '27 Mateo Krok '27
Keelhaulers Christopher Shintani '25 Kayleigh Andres '25
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Sterling Maggard '27 Adalia Jimenez '25
Dolphins Brandon Stadtherr '24 Seraphee De Labaca '26
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Chase Vanderveer '27
Broncos Chase Vanderveer '27
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Braedon Hansen '25 Nicholas Conti '26
Aggies Alexander Lohan '24 Blossom Jee '25
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Adam Leddy '25 Sriskandha Kandimalla '25
Anteaters Arin Bekem '26 Thu Vo '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Andrew Keller '23 Tean Brooks '24
Tritons 1 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25 Cheyenne Ozaeta '27
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Brendan O'Connor '27 Liza Churkov '25
Tritons 2 Sean Lipps '24 Johnathan Garcia '26
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Blake Roberts '25 [1-8] Carter Anderson '27 [1-4]
Lucas Elliott '25 [5-8]
Banana Slugs 1 Colin Olson '26 Conor Kim '27
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Andrew Ring '25 Vienna Lopez '27
Banana Slugs 2 Lucas Elliott '25 [1-4]
Carter Anderson '27 [5-8]		 Caden Domingo '27 [1-4]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Jackson Mckinley '26 Breeze Pickford '26
Trojans 1 Edward Ansart '24 Anthony Torrez '25
University of Southern California University of Southern California Luke Harris '27 Ava Bergan '27
Trojans 2 Morgana Manti '26 Ainslie Pratt '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Davis Winsor '24 Cara Loo '24
Trojans 3 Hudson Mayfield '27 Ariana Gabier '24

Conditions — 04/06/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1023.7 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1023.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Irvine: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Irvine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at UC Irvine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →