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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 41 14 55
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 43 29 72
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 37 43 80
4 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 46 36 82
5 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 35 61 96
6 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 87 53 140
7 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 76 67 143
8 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 83 71 154
9 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 58 99 157
10 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 70 107 177
11 San Diego State University San Diego State University Viejas 104 74 178
12 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 83 109 192
13 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 105 120 225
14 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 129 113 242
15 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 121 131 252
16 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 147 106 253
17 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 118 152 270
18 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 157 154 311
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1 5 2 3 6 5 7 5 1 35 Garrett Henderson '27
Samuel Groom '24
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 6 2 1 4 5 4 8 3 4 37 Thomas Erisman '26
Kayla Spalding '28
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 3 3 3 13 4 1 5 2 7 41 Luke Harris '27 [1-8]
Maximilian Conze '28 [9]
Ava Bergan '27 [1-8]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows OCS 1 8 2 1 7 1 1 3 43 Erik Anderson '26 [1-4, 7-9]
Vivian Bonsager '25 [5-6]
Amanda Turner '27 [1-4, 7-9]
Kees Horn '25 [5-6]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 10 5 1 2 9 2 4 11 46 Nicholas Mueller '27
Gavin Steuerwald '28
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 4 4 4 7 3 14 6 11 5 58 Morgana Manti '26
Julia Szymanski '28
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 5 9 13 16 7 2 9 7 2 70 Florence Duff '25
Emily Yong '25
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 9 6 7 17 9 10 4 8 6 76 Jake Weinstein '27
Herbert Single '27
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 7 8 14 8 10 3 12 9 12 83 Nate Ingebritson '25
Ethan Lisle '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 10 7 9 5 8 11 15 10 8 83 Katherine Olsen '25
Amelia Gassner '24
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 11 12 10 6 15 15 3 6 9 87 Blake Roberts '25
Vienna Lopez '27
San Diego State University San Diego State University Viejas 8 14 6 10 13 12 11 13 17 104 Owen Gormely '27
Beverly Schimmel '26
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 13 15 12 9 11 6 10 15 14 105 Ryan Ingram '25
Sydney Krahulik '27
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 12 11 16 12 14 13 16 14 10 118 Rigel Mummers '27
Nitsa Thotz '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 15 13 11 15 17 8 17 12 13 121 Braedon Hansen '25
Aryaman Patel '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 14 16 15 11 12 16 13 16 16 129 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
Alex Bussey '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 17 18 17 14 18 17 14 17 15 147 Andrew Down '27
Christopher Moore '26
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 16 17 18 18 16 18 18 18 18 157 Sadie Hoberman '25
Gillian Cate '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 14 Hudson Mayfield '27 [1-9]
Ariana Gabier '24 [1-2, 5-9]
Maximilian Conze '28 [3-4]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 4 2 3 4 8 1 2 3 29 Everett Mcavoy '26
Sophia Shaeffer '25
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 5 2 3 8 3 1 5 3 6 36 Sam Jennings '27
Logan Chapman '26
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 7 6 1 9 3 4 7 5 43 Michael Fineman '25
Samuel Long '27
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 8 5 7 5 2 6 6 10 4 53 George Soliman '24
Conor Kim '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 4 8 12 6 5 9 9 6 2 61 Jack Kisling '25 [1-9]
Gabriel Gargiulo '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Kyle Hirth '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 7 11 11 11 7 5 3 4 8 67 Nicholas Chesemore '27
Samantha Forgosh '26
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 11 3 5 7 13 7 11 5 9 71 Carsten Zieger '28 [1-9]
John Mayfield '28 [1-6]
Annika Baumgartner '28 [7-9]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Viejas 9 6 4 9 10 4 12 9 11 74 Christopher Hopkins '25
Ellie Dickson '25
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 12 9 10 4 11 10 16 12 15 99 Lara Granucci '28
Isabella Rangel '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 13 16 13 12 16 14 7 8 7 106 Austin Teodorovic '28
Patrick Gardiner '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 10 12 16 13 12 15 8 11 10 107 Annika Burns '27 [1-9]
Simone Karlon '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Catalina Brody '28 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 6 10 8 16 6 17 15 17 14 109 Victoria Chen '25 [1-9]
Annika Baumgartner '28 [1-6]
Catherine Arcaris '26 [7-9]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 15 13 14 10 8 13 10 13 17 113 Ian Johnston '25 [1-9]
Nakshatra Bansal '25 [1-6]
Stella Potter '26 [7-9]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 14 15 9 15 14 12 13 15 13 120 Cole Broberg '25 [1-9]
Menya Bird '26 [1-2, 9]
Drew Gourley '27 [3-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 18 14 15 14 17 11 14 16 12 131 Jason Yang '25
Blossom Jee '25
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 17 18 17 17 18 16 17 14 18 152 Alexandra Toaxen '27
Phineas Fritsch '27
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 16 17 18 18 15 18 18 18 16 154 Erin Welker '27
Samantha George '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.230+0.23
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 1393939393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 2404040404040404040
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1232323232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2242424242424242424
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers202202202202202202202202202
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1333333333
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows363636363636363636
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats373737373737373737
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Viejas115115115115115115115115115
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1383838383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2137137137137137137137137137
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies565656565656565656
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies1481481481486262626262
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins272727272727272727
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons292929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos131131131131131131131131131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs133133133133133133133133133

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 1393939393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 2404040404040404040
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1232323232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2242424242424242424
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers202202202202202202202202202
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1333333333
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows363636363636363636
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats373737373737373737
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Viejas115115115115115115115115115
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1383838383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2137137137137137137137137137
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies565656565656565656
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies1481481481486262626262
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins272727272727272727
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons292929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos131131131131131131131131131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs133133133133133133133133133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Andrew Down '27 Christopher Moore '26
Sun Devils 1 Austin Teodorovic '28 Patrick Gardiner '26
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sadie Hoberman '25 Gillian Cate '25
Sun Devils 2 Erin Welker '27 Samantha George '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Garrett Henderson '27 Samuel Groom '24
Mustangs 1 Jack Kisling '25 [1-9] Gabriel Gargiulo '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Kyle Hirth '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Florence Duff '25 Emily Yong '25
Mustangs 2 Annika Burns '27 [1-9] Simone Karlon '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Catalina Brody '28 [3-4, 7-8]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Nicholas Mueller '27 Gavin Steuerwald '28
Keelhaulers Sam Jennings '27 Logan Chapman '26
Northwestern University Northwestern University Jake Weinstein '27 Herbert Single '27
Wildcats Nicholas Chesemore '27 Samantha Forgosh '26
San Diego State University San Diego State University Owen Gormely '27 Beverly Schimmel '26
Viejas Christopher Hopkins '25 Ellie Dickson '25
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Ryan Ingram '25 Sydney Krahulik '27
Aggies Cole Broberg '25 [1-9] Menya Bird '26 [1-2, 9]
Drew Gourley '27 [3-8]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Nate Ingebritson '25 Ethan Lisle '25
Bears 1 Carsten Zieger '28 [1-9] John Mayfield '28 [1-6]
Annika Baumgartner '28 [7-9]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Katherine Olsen '25 Amelia Gassner '24
Bears 2 Victoria Chen '25 [1-9] Annika Baumgartner '28 [1-6]
Catherine Arcaris '26 [7-9]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Braedon Hansen '25 Aryaman Patel '24
Aggies Jason Yang '25 Blossom Jee '25
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Rigel Mummers '27 Nitsa Thotz '26
Bruins Alexandra Toaxen '27 Phineas Fritsch '27
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Audra Spokas-Jaros '25 Alex Bussey '25
Tritons Ian Johnston '25 [1-9] Nakshatra Bansal '25 [1-6]
Stella Potter '26 [7-9]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Thomas Erisman '26 Kayla Spalding '28
Gauchos Michael Fineman '25 Samuel Long '27
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Blake Roberts '25 Vienna Lopez '27
Banana Slugs George Soliman '24 Conor Kim '27
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Erik Anderson '26 [1-4, 7-9]
Vivian Bonsager '25 [5-6]		 Amanda Turner '27 [1-4, 7-9]
Kees Horn '25 [5-6]
Rainbows Everett Mcavoy '26 Sophia Shaeffer '25
University of Southern California University of Southern California Luke Harris '27 [1-8]
Maximilian Conze '28 [9]		 Ava Bergan '27 [1-8]
Trojans 1 Hudson Mayfield '27 [1-9] Ariana Gabier '24 [1-2, 5-9]
Maximilian Conze '28 [3-4]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Morgana Manti '26 Julia Szymanski '28
Trojans 2 Lara Granucci '28 Isabella Rangel '25

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 19%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.6 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From NE (43°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity19% Pressure1017.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn · NW 5 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Berkeley: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →