PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship

HostStanford
Date04/08/2023
TypeConference Championship
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	21–0
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	15–6
3	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	15–6
4	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	11–10
5	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	9–12
6	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	6–15
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	5–16
8	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	2–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,956 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 72 of 84 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.361 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.09 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	10.91 school +0.41, home +0.45	Michelle Lahrkamp / Grace Austin 3.47 Chapman Petersen / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.33 Justin Lim / Isabelle Mcnabb 3.24 15–0 Justin Lim / Lauren Taylor 3.09 6–0	99%	21–0 (100%)	+0.3
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3	7.36 school −0.32	Chris Kayda / Kate Gallagher 2.83 David Alexander / Kaitlin Chan 2.28 Ted Mcdonough / Julia Roudebush	70%	15–6 (71%)	+0.2
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	2	7.86	Owen Lahr / Frances Tarpey-Schwed 2.53 12–6 Erik Anderson / Everett Mcavoy 12–6 Bastien Rasse / Kelsie Grant 2.74 9–6 Trey Summers / Chloe Long 2.20 12–0	77%	15–6 (71%)	−1.2
4	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	4	5.72 school +0.14	Ryan Downey / Charles Bedford 1.95 Conner Skewes / Etienne Quille 1.53 Maxwell Roth / Jayden Benedict 1.94	48%	11–10 (52%)	+1.0
5	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	5	5.47 school −0.24	Gideon Burnes Heath / Teresa Dang 2.17 Zack Taylor / Emma Worthington 1.19 Marianna Shand / Linnea Jackson 2.17	43%	9–12 (43%)	−0.1
6	University of California at Berkeley Bears	8	3.62	Wilton Lawton / Ethan Lisle 1.27 Luc Lamontagne / Fiona Wu 1.10 Enzo Cremers / Viola Phillips Frank 1.02 2–10 Enzo Cremers / Sophia Jacobs 1.12 4–5	13%	6–15 (29%)	+3.2
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	6	4.61 school +0.15	Kai Ponting / Maura Darby 1.98 Max Case / Mira Shupe 1.38 Robert Bloomfield / Chloe Schofield	28%	5–16 (24%)	−1.0
8	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	7	4.18 school +0.09	Blake Roberts / Eliza Murrell 1.12 George Soliman / Irene Abfalterer 1.32 Colin Olson / Jonathan Baker	21%	2–19 (10%)	−2.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	10.91	13.91	21–0	20.7	≥+3.00	0.4	74%
6	University of California at Berkeley	3.62	4.86	6–15	2.8	+1.24	3.1	4%
4	California Maritime Academy	5.72	6.08	11–10	10.0	+0.36	0.3	39%
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	7.36	7.48	15–6	14.8	+0.13	0.0	60%
5	University of California at Los Angeles	5.47	5.45	9–12	9.1	−0.02	0.0	64%
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	4.61	4.26	5–16	6.0	−0.36	0.2	81%
3	University of Hawaii	7.86	7.22	15–6	16.2	−0.63	0.6	91%
8	University of California at Santa Cruz	4.18	3.00	2–19	4.4	−1.18	1.9	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Luc Lamontagne	University of California at Berkeley	1.10	2.34	6–15	2.8	+1.24	3.1	4%
Enzo Cremers	University of California at Berkeley	1.02	2.26	6–15	2.8	+1.24	3.1	4%
Ryan Downey	California Maritime Academy	1.95	2.31	11–10	10.0	+0.36	0.3	39%
Maxwell Roth	California Maritime Academy	1.94	2.29	11–10	10.0	+0.36	0.3	39%
David Alexander	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.28	2.41	15–6	14.8	+0.13	0.0	60%
Ted Mcdonough	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.33	2.45	15–6	14.8	+0.13	0.0	60%
Gideon Burnes Heath	University of California at Los Angeles	2.17	2.15	9–12	9.1	−0.02	0.0	64%
Owen Lahr	University of Hawaii	2.53	1.80	12–6	13.4	−0.74	0.8	93%
Bastien Rasse	University of Hawaii	2.74	1.59	9–6	10.7	−1.15	1.5	97%
Blake Roberts	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.12	-0.06	2–19	4.4	−1.18	1.9	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	94%
1	2	University of California at Los Angeles	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	69%
1	3	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	83%
1	4	University of California at Berkeley	University of California at Santa Cruz	39%	upset
1	5	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	96%
1	6	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	100%
1	7	University of California at Santa Cruz	University of California at Los Angeles	21%	upset
1	8	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	97%
1	9	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	75%
1	10	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Cruz	97%
1	11	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
1	12	University of California at Los Angeles	University of California at Berkeley	86%
1	13	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	83%
1	14	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	94%
1	15	University of Hawaii	University of California at Los Angeles	90%
1	16	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
1	17	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	96%
1	18	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Los Angeles	56%
1	19	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
1	20	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	99%
1	21	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Los Angeles	87%
1	22	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
1	23	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	87%
1	24	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Berkeley	74%
1	25	Stanford University	University of California at Los Angeles	100%
1	26	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Barbara	69%
1	27	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Santa Cruz	61%
1	28	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	90%
2	29	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	94%
2	30	University of California at Los Angeles	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	70%
2	31	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	84%
2	32	University of California at Berkeley	University of California at Santa Cruz	37%	upset
2	33	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	96%
2	34	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	99%
2	35	University of California at Los Angeles	University of California at Santa Cruz	78%
2	36	University of California at Berkeley	University of California at Santa Barbara	2%	upset
2	37	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	75%
2	38	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Cruz	97%
2	39	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	97%
2	40	University of California at Los Angeles	University of California at Berkeley	86%
2	41	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	82%
2	42	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Santa Barbara	6%	upset
2	43	University of Hawaii	University of California at Los Angeles	89%
2	44	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
2	45	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	96%
2	46	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Los Angeles	56%
2	47	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
2	48	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	99%
2	49	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Los Angeles	87%
2	50	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
2	51	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	86%
2	52	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Berkeley	73%
2	53	Stanford University	University of California at Los Angeles	100%
2	54	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	32%	upset
2	55	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Santa Cruz	60%
2	56	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	89%
3	57	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	94%
3	58	University of California at Los Angeles	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	71%
3	59	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	84%
3	60	University of California at Berkeley	University of California at Santa Cruz	37%	upset
3	61	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	96%
3	62	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	99%
3	63	University of California at Los Angeles	University of California at Santa Cruz	78%
3	64	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	98%
3	65	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	76%
3	66	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Cruz	97%
3	67	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	97%
3	68	University of California at Los Angeles	University of California at Berkeley	86%
3	69	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	82%
3	70	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	94%
3	71	University of Hawaii	University of California at Los Angeles	89%
3	72	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
3	73	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	96%
3	74	University of California at Los Angeles	California Maritime Academy	44%	upset
3	75	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
3	76	University of California at Berkeley	University of Hawaii	1%	upset
3	77	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Los Angeles	87%
3	78	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
3	79	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	86%
3	80	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	27%	upset
3	81	Stanford University	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
3	82	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	33%	upset
3	83	University of California at Santa Cruz	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	40%	upset
3	84	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	89%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Bruins	Bears	Mustangs	Slugs
Stanford University Cardinal	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
University of California at Berkeley Bears	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Bruins	Bears	Mustangs	Slugs
Stanford University Cardinal	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4–3	L	✕	W	W	W	L	L	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	2–5	L	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	3–4	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Bruins	Bears	Mustangs	Slugs
Stanford University Cardinal	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	3–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
2	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
3	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
4	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Banana Slugs	2-3-6
5	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
7	Banana Slugs	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
8	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
9	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
10	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
12	Bruins	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
13	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs	1-5-6
14	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
15	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
16	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
17	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
18	Keelhaulers	1-3-6	def.	Bruins	2-4-5
19	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
20	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
21	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
22	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
23	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
24	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
26	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
27	Mustangs	2-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs	1-5-6
28	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
29	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
30	Bruins	2-3-5	def.	Mustangs	1-4-6
31	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
32	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
33	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
34	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
35	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
36	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
37	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
38	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Banana Slugs	3-5-6
39	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
40	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
41	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs	1-5-6
42	Mustangs	1-4-5	def.	Gauchos	2-3-6
43	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
45	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
46	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
47	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
48	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
49	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
50	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
51	Rainbows	1-3-5	def.	Keelhaulers	2-4-6
52	Mustangs	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
53	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
54	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
55	Mustangs	1-3-5	def.	Banana Slugs	2-4-6
56	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
57	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
58	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
59	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
60	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
61	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
62	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
63	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
64	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
65	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
66	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Banana Slugs	3-5-6
67	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
68	Bruins	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
69	Keelhaulers	1-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs	2-5-6
70	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
71	Rainbows	1-3-4	def.	Bruins	2-5-6
72	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
73	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Banana Slugs	3-5-6
74	Bruins	1-4-5	def.	Keelhaulers	2-3-6
75	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
76	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
77	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
78	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
79	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
80	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
81	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
82	Gauchos	1-3-6	def.	Rainbows	2-4-5
83	Banana Slugs	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
84	Keelhaulers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Chapman Petersen '26 Justin Lim '23 Michelle Lahrkamp '23	Gwendolyn Donahue '24 Isabelle Mcnabb '26 Lauren Taylor '24 Grace Austin '24
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Chris Kayda '23 David Alexander '23 Ted Mcdonough '26	Kate Gallagher '25 Kaitlin Chan '23 Julia Roudebush '23
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Bastien Rasse '23 Erik Anderson '26 Owen Lahr '23 Trey Summers '24	Kelsie Grant '23 Everett Mcavoy '26 Frances Tarpey-Schwed '23 Chloe Long '23
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Conner Skewes '25 Maxwell Roth '24 Ryan Downey '25	Etienne Quille '25 Jayden Benedict '23 Charles Bedford '24
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	Gideon Burnes Heath '23 Marianna Shand '24 Zack Taylor '23	Teresa Dang '24 Linnea Jackson '25 Emma Worthington '23
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Enzo Cremers '24 Luc Lamontagne '22 Wilton Lawton '26	Viola Phillips Frank '26 Sophia Jacobs '23 Fiona Wu '25 Ethan Lisle '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	Kai Ponting '23 Max Case '24 Robert Bloomfield '26	Maura Darby '25 Mira Shupe '26 Chloe Schofield '23
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	Blake Roberts '25 Colin Olson '26 George Soliman '24	Eliza Murrell '26 Jonathan Baker '25 Irene Abfalterer '25

Conditions — 04/08/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 79% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 62°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.8 kn

avg · max 6.4 kn

Gusts to 16.5 kn

From NNE (13°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1019.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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