University of California at Berkeley '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.78 (fleet 1.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–46 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–15 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 3 | 11–27 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (69 matches) the record is 23–46 against 15.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.5). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-08 | PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.10 | 2.34 | 6–15 | 2.8 | +1.24 | 3.1 | 4% |
| 2020-02-22 | Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.26 | 2.35 | 4–12 | 2.3 | +1.10 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 2020-02-08 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.19 | 0.54 | 4–3 | 4.5 | −0.65 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2020-02-01 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 0.95 | 2.60 | 3–12 | 0.9 | +1.65 | 2.8 | 5% |
| 2019-02-09 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.47 | 1.48 | 6–4 | 5.0 | +1.00 | 0.7 | 30% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Invitational- North Semis | Skipper | A | 3 | 12.3 | -0.76 |
| PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.9 | 1.03 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.4 | 0.52 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.2 | 0.92 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.7 | 1.05 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.5 | 0.52 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Gaucho Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 0.59 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.6 | 1.85 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 8 | 9.6 | 1.38 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Coed Dinghy Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | 0.93 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.6 | 1.66 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 18.3 | 0.02 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | -0.44 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Champs - JV | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.6 | 1.37 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
