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Gaucho Team Race

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,108 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 45 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.459 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.43 ± 0.26: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 1		19.81
home +0.36		Quinn Wilson / Elizabeth Moody 3.43
David Eastwood / Tristan Richmond 3.06
Sidney Gathrid / Jake Zieba 2.88		89%15–0 (100%)+1.6
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 2		28.90
home +0.36		Lucas Pierce / Julia Roudebush 3.08
Chris Kayda / Jack Holbrook
Sampson Reynolds / Sophie Thompson 2.39		76%10–5 (67%)−1.4
3California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		38.32
school +0.26		Brock Paquin / Hailey Thompson 2.99
Jacob Fisker-Andersen / Kian Patrick 2.59
Storm Brown / Justin Zmina		66%9–6 (60%)−0.9
4University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 3		55.46
home +0.36		Kerri Luttrell / Olivia Beers 2.17
Margot Mason / Pyper Atkin
Ariana Fernandez / Sophia Jacobs		22%5–10 (33%)+1.7
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		46.75
school +0.36		Liam Hood / Alyson Crowley 2.44
Josselyn Verutti / Maddie Roman 1.89
Kai Ponting / Peyton Nienaber 1.97		41%3–12 (20%)−3.1
6University of California at Berkeley
Bears		64.13
school −0.17		Sarah Paulsen / Lindsea Hayes
Drake Hayes / Alex Ferry 2.30
Luc Lamontagne / Rosie Ward 0.95		6%3–12 (20%)+2.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 19.8112.8115–013.4≥+3.002.516%
6University of California at Berkeley Bears4.135.783–120.9+1.652.85%
4University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 35.466.595–103.3+1.121.414%
3California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers8.327.829–69.9−0.510.386%
2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 28.908.1410–511.4−0.760.893%
5Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs6.754.733–126.1−2.014.5>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Quinn WilsonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.436.4315–013.4≥+3.002.516%
Sidney GathridUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.885.8815–013.4≥+3.002.516%
Luc LamontagneUniversity of California at Berkeley0.952.603–120.9+1.652.85%
Kerri LuttrellUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.173.305–103.3+1.121.414%
Margot MasonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.402.525–103.3+1.121.414%
Ariana FernandezUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.112.235–103.3+1.121.414%
Jacob Fisker-AndersenCalifornia Maritime Academy2.592.089–69.9−0.510.386%
Storm BrownCalifornia Maritime Academy2.191.689–69.9−0.510.386%
Sampson ReynoldsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.391.6310–511.4−0.760.893%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
12California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs80%
13University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 399%
14University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers64%
15University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3University of California at Berkeley Bears79%
16University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs96%
17California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 395%
18University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs89%
19University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Berkeley Bears100%
110Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 380%
111California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears99%
112University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 272%
113University of California at Berkeley BearsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs7%upset
114University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 397%
115University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers82%
216University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 21%upset
217California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs83%
218University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 399%
219California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 236%upset
220University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 321%upset
221University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs96%
222California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 395%
223University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs90%
224University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Berkeley Bears100%
225University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs23%upset
226California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears98%
227University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 270%
228Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears93%
229University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 397%
230University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers81%
331University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
332California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs84%
333University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 399%
334University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers64%
335University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3University of California at Berkeley Bears79%
336University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs95%
337University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers6%upset
338University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs90%
339University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Berkeley Bears100%
340University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs24%upset
341California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears98%
342University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 269%
343Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears92%
344University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 397%
345University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers80%

Round 1

TeamRec.12Keelhaulers3MustangsBears
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 110–5✕✕W✕LW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 210–5✕✕W✕LW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers3–2LL✕LWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 310–5✕✕W✕LW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs1–4WWLW✕L
University of California at Berkeley Bears1–4LLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.12Keelhaulers3MustangsBears
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 18–7✕✕W✕WW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 28–7✕✕W✕WW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers4–1LL✕LWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 38–7✕✕W✕WW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs1–4LLLL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears2–3LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.12Keelhaulers3MustangsBears
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 112–3✕✕W✕WW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 212–3✕✕W✕WW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers2–3LL✕LWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 312–3✕✕W✕WW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs1–4LLLL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
2 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
3 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-5-6
4 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
5 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
6 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
7 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-5-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
9 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
10 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-6
11 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
12 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-5-6
13 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
14 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-6
15 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-3-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-4-5
16 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-4-6
17 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
18 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-6
19 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-5-6
20 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-4-6
21 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
22 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-5
23 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5
24 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
25 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
26 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
27 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 2-4-6
28 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-4-6
29 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-6
30 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 2-3-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-4-6
31 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
32 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
33 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-5-6
34 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
35 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
36 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
37 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
38 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
39 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
40 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5
41 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
42 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 2-4-6
43 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
44 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-5
45 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5

Conditions — 02/01/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 37%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.0 kn
avg  ·  max 2.7 kn
Gusts to 10.9 kn
From SSW (211°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity37% Pressure1022.7 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →