California Maritime Academy '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.43 (fleet 3.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 63–30 (68%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 7–0 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 3 | 22–13 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 34–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (93 matches) the record is 63–30 against 62.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-12 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 2.81 | 5.81 | 7–0 | 6.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 73% |
| 2020-02-22 | Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 2.54 | 9–7 | 9.8 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2020-02-08 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 5.97 | 4–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 94% |
| 2020-02-01 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 2.99 | 2.48 | 9–6 | 9.9 | −0.51 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2019-04-06 | Carter Ford PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.84 | 4.36 | 11–4 | 8.1 | +1.52 | 3.1 | 4% |
| 2019-02-23 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.76 | 1.99 | 7–9 | 8.7 | −0.76 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2019-02-09 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 1.52 | 7–3 | 8.7 | −1.27 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 2019-01-26 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 2.64 | 4.44 | 9–1 | 7.1 | +1.80 | 2.3 | 10% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of LA Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 4.3 | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.8 | 3.16 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.5 | 3.56 |
| Shields Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 4.0 | — |
| 2022 Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 2.0 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Jeff Simon Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.0 | 3.61 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 2.6 | — |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Shields Trophy Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| PCCSC Match Race Champiosnhips | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 3.41 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 3.2 | — |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Gaucho Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 4 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Varsity | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.9 | 2.52 |
| Shields Trophy Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 1.6 | — |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 4.0 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 4.00 |
| 2020 Rose Bowl - College | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.0 | 4.03 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (SCOR) A Div Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 3.7 | — |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 2.3 | — |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Gaucho Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 2.43 |
| Stoney Burke Varsity | Skipper | A, B | 6 | 5.2 | 3.64 |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 6 | 6.8 | 2.36 |
| 2019 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.0 | 3.40 |
| 2018 PCCSC Match Race Championship | Crew | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Brock Paquin |  Coronado |
'18 |
| ISSA | Brock Paquin |  Big Foot High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
