Coronado Islanders '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.05 (fleet 3.31) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–16 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 9–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 10–16 against 9.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | PCISA Team Racing PCCs | skipper | 2.53 | 1.26 | 1–9 | 2.1 | −1.27 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2017-04-29 | PCISA Team Racing District Championships | skipper | 2.24 | 2.92 | 9–7 | 7.3 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 24% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Team Racing PCCs | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| PCISA 4 Golden Bear Gold Fleet | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.0 | — |
| PCISA Gold PCCs | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.0 | — |
| 2018 Gaucho Regatta - Gold | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.1 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl 2018 - HS Gold | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.5 | — |
| Anteater - Gold | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.6 | — |
| 2017 Sea Otter Gold | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Team Racing District Championships | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| PCISA GOLD Pacific Coast Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.9 | — |
| ISSA Fleet Racing Championship (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.0 | 0.14 |
| Golden Bear PCISA 4 Gold Fleet | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | — |
| Gaucho Regatta - Gold | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl - Gold | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.3 | — |
| Anteater Regatta - Gold | Skipper | A | 7 | 14.6 | — |
| 2016 Sea Otter Silver | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.2 | 3.77 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Brock Paquin |  California Maritime Academy |
'22 |
| ISSA | Brock Paquin |  Big Foot High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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