2016 Sea Otter Silver

HostMonterey Peninsula Yacht Club
Date10/08/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Coronado Islanders	Islanders	11	31	42
2	Redwood High School	Giants	39	18	57
3	SF University High School	Red Devils	32	28	60
4	Palo Alto High	Varsity	39	25	64
5	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	49	15	64
6	Woodside High School	Woodside	56	10	66
7	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	32	72	104
8	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	69	49	118
9	The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	76	43	119
10	Providence Santa Barbara	Providence Santa Bar	49	74	123
11	Sage Hill School	Lightning	82	48	130
12	Branson School	Bulls	102	30	132
13	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	72	65	137
14	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Varsity	73	69	142
15	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	92	68	160
16	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	60	100	160
17	Stevenson School	Varsity 2	32	135	167
18	Campolindo High School	Cougars	61	109	170
19	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	92	81	173
20	Port of Los Angeles High School	Varsity	71	113	184
21	Santa Monica High School	Varsity	108	83	191
22	College Park High School	College Park	94	99	193
23	Carmel High School	Padres	64	136	200
24	Stevenson School	Varsity 1	120	80	200
25	The Urban School	Varsity	120	94	214
26	Monterey High School	Varsity	122	104	226
27	Berkeley High School	Varsity	109	125	234
28	Archie Williams High School	Varsity	134	119	253
29	Santa Catalina School	Cougars	119	135	254

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Coronado Islanders	Islanders	1	6	2	1	1	11	Brock Paquin '18 Amy Schafer '19
SF University High School	Red Devils	3	2	12	3	12	32	Lily Cunningham '17 [1-5] Kai Hill '17 [1-4] Brian Kirz '18 [5]
Stevenson School	Varsity 2	5	11	9	4	3	32	Stuart Henry '17 Marko Zaninovich '19
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	6	8	6	2	10	32	Michael Lively '18 [1-5] Josh Cole '18 [1-2, 5] Ethan Waite '18 [3-4]
Palo Alto High	Varsity	4	18	1	5	11	39	Andrew Huang '18 Max Saparov '20
Redwood High School	Giants	10	1	13	10	5	39	Kaelin Stock '18 Liam Farese '18
Providence Santa Barbara	Providence Santa Bar	8	5	17	13	6	49	Rick Eickert '17 Payne Donaldson '19
Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	11	9	3	7	19	49	Caden Wheeler '17 [1-2, 5] Anthony Zorayan '18 [3-4] Sarah Politiski '17 [1-2, 5]
Woodside High School	Woodside	2	19	10	16	9	56	Joseph Politi '18 Jessica O'Neill '19
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	22	10	5	19	4	60	Carter Nestell '18 [1-5] Caitlin Buono '19 [1-4] Henri Stephan '18 [5]
Campolindo High School	Cougars	9	12	24	14	2	61	Niko Vo '18 Derek Nelson '18
Carmel High School	Padres	15	15	8	11	15	64	Dalton Muck '19 Muck Nathan '21
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	12	14	7	18	18	69	Emma Figueredo '19 Emma Jones '18
Port of Los Angeles High School	Varsity	13	3	27	8	20	71	Patrick Garrett '21 Daniel Velazquez '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	7	16	18	23	8	72	William Hale '18 [1-2, 5] Sarah Cuyler '19 [3-4] Reid Wishner '19 [1-4] Sarah Cuyler '19 [5]
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Varsity	14	7	15	9	28	73	Benjamin Louttit '18 Kenneth White '18
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	DSQ	4	4	22	16	76	Keelin Davis '17 Genna Corlett '17
Sage Hill School	Lightning	17	23	14	21	7	82	Isabelle Meegan '19 [1-5] Dylan Strode '18 [1-4] Rowan Oliphant '20 [5]
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	18	26	11	12	25	92	Evan Insley '19 [1-5] Davis Dillenberg '19 [1-4] Alex Gou '19 [5]
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	20	13	25	20	14	92	Gabriella Schmidt '18 [1-4] Mackenzie Berwick '18 [5] Evelyn Plam '19 [1-2, 5] Mackenzie Berwick '18 [3-4]
College Park High School	College Park	23	17	16	15	23	94	Zack Taylor '19 Jack Holden '22
Branson School	Bulls	RAF	27	22	6	17	102	Andrew Fisher '19 Emma Kami '19
Santa Monica High School	Varsity	19	21	20	26	22	108	Sam Weiler '17 [1-5] Makeda Bulluck Floyd '18 [1-2] Josiah Polhemus '19 [3-5]
Berkeley High School	Varsity	24	25	19	17	24	109	Max Rodman '18 Stuart Myers '17
Santa Catalina School	Cougars	25	24	28	29	13	119	Jessica Crump '21 [1-5] Eleanor Sheetz '19 [1-4] Abigail Romero '21 [5]
The Urban School	Varsity	16	29	23	25	27	120	Cayley Crist '17 [1-5] Anna Krylova '20 [1-2, 5] Dillan Srivastava '20 [3-4]
Stevenson School	Varsity 1	21	22	29	27	21	120	Ben Gersten '18 Naomi Dommermuth '18
Monterey High School	Varsity	27	20	21	24	DNF	122	Gabriel Gargiulo '21 Reagan Dalton '21
Archie Williams High School	Varsity	26	28	26	28	26	134	Elsa Simenstad '22 Grace Glass '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Woodside High School	Woodside	2	1	2	4	1	10	Judith Politi '21 Tommy Ashworth '21
Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	5	2	3	1	4	15	Jeffrey Petersen '20 Jacob Nguyen '17
Redwood High School	Giants	7	BKD	1	3	3	18	Sarah Young '20 [1-5] Kali Gibbs '18 [1-2] Gabe Marra '17 [3-5]
Palo Alto High	Varsity	11	3	7	2	2	25	Will Glasson '20 Charlotte Versavel '21
SF University High School	Red Devils	1	5	8	8	6	28	Micherice Tao '19 [1-5] Brian Kirz '18 [1-2] Graham Gerrity '17 [3-4] Kate Elkort '18 [5]
Branson School	Bulls	6	7	4	5	8	30	Isabel Rewick '19 Kamila Harting '18
Coronado Islanders	Islanders	9	6	5	6	5	31	Stewart Powell '17 Trey Summers '20
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	19	4	6	7	7	43	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1-4] Jade Greer '19 [5] Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 [1-2, 5] Jade Greer '19 [3-4]
Sage Hill School	Lightning	3	11	9	13	12	48	Darcy Chung '20 [1-4] Joshua Cheadle '19 [5] Rowan Oliphant '20 [1-2] Ryan Simpson '19 [3-4] Dylan Strode '18 [5]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	4	8	12	12	13	49	Griffin Chen '19 [1-2] Christian Rodriguez '18 [3-5] Jacob Renneisen '18 [1-2]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	13	9	14	9	20	65	Alexander Holderness '17 [1-2, 5] Alex Pick '19 [3-4] Aj Torres '19 [1-4] Alex Pick '19 [5]
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	8	16	17	10	17	68	Matt Matich '20 Sophia Lopez '19
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Varsity	15	12	11	17	14	69	Cyrus Khaleeli '20 [1-5] Jordan Greenway '17 [1-2] Matthew Sun '20 [3-4] Jackson Hoover '20 [5]
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	12	15	13	14	18	72	Thomas Laskarzewski '18 [1-5] Robert Laskarzewski '21 [1-4] Ethan Waite '18 [5]
Providence Santa Barbara	Providence Santa Bar	10	14	16	11	23	74	Jacob Pelto '17 Evan Boger '18
Stevenson School	Varsity 1	14	13	18	20	15	80	Vic Sahni '17 Coco Huang '18
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	24	10	10	16	21	81	William Bayliss '20 [1-5] Sam Wu '22 [1-2, 5] Will Devine '22 [3-4]
Santa Monica High School	Varsity	16	22	19	15	11	83	Nicholas Jensen '20 [1-2, 5] Lola Rice '18 [3-4] Casper Jensen '20 [1-2] Daniel Ramirez '17 [3-4] Makeda Bulluck Floyd '18 [5]
The Urban School	Varsity	25	19	15	19	16	94	Hannah Schrank '19 [1-5] Eli Gordon '20 [1-4] Dillan Srivastava '20 [5]
College Park High School	College Park	18	24	24	23	10	99	Madeleine Henry '18 Pierce Yeary '20
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	23	20	DNF	18	9	100	Keilah Stypulkoski '19 Miriam Rogers '19
Monterey High School	Varsity	17	18	20	22	27	104	Finn Stout '20 [1-4] Simone Cremonese '21 [5] Lily Robnett '21 [1-2] Pierce Nelson '21 [3-5]
Campolindo High School	Cougars	20	26	23	21	19	109	Daniel Warner '18 Ian Churchill '19
Port of Los Angeles High School	Varsity	26	17	22	24	24	113	Elizabeth Hermenegildo '19 James Sawyer '21
Archie Williams High School	Varsity	21	21	21	28	28	119	Noelle Scheer '18 Cody Ocallahan '21
Berkeley High School	Varsity	22	23	DNF	25	25	125	Lucien Canvinet '20 Rosie Ward '19
Santa Catalina School	Cougars	27	27	25	27	29	135	Camila Notholt '19 [1-5] Abigail Romero '21 [1-4] Eleanor Sheetz '19 [5]
Stevenson School	Varsity 2	28	RAF	26	29	22	135	Kay Du '18 [1-4] Susanna Yan '18 [5] Jerry Li '18 [1-2] Taylor Lee '19 [3-4] Nikki Naquin '17 [5]
Carmel High School	Padres	29	25	DNF	26	26	136	Graham Cash '19 [1-5] No Show [1-2] Jack Hays '19 [3-5]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Berkeley High School Varsity	60	60	58	58	56
Campolindo High School Cougars	58	58	56	56	54
Carmel High School Padres	57	57	55	55	53
College Park High School College Park	56	56	54	54	52
Coronado Islanders Islanders	55	55	53	53	51
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	54	54	52	52	50
Marin Catholic Wildcats	53	53	51	51	49
Mater Dei High School Monarchs	52	52	50	50	48
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	51	51	49	49	47
Monterey High School Varsity	50	50	48	48	46
Palo Alto High Varsity	49	49	47	47	45
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	48	48	46	46	44
Port of Los Angeles High School Varsity	46	46	44	44	42
Providence Santa Barbara Providence Santa Bar	45	45	43	43	41
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Varsity	47	47	45	45	43
Redwood High School Giants	44	44	42	42	40
Sage Hill School Lightning	43	43	41	41	39
Santa Catalina School Cougars	41	41	39	39	37
Santa Monica High School Varsity	40	40	38	38	36
SF University High School Red Devils	42	42	40	40	38
Archie Williams High School Varsity	39	39	37	37	35
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Varsity	38	38	36	36	34
Stevenson School Varsity 1	37	37	35	35	33
Stevenson School Varsity 2	36	36	34	34	32
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	35	35	33	33	60
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	34	34	32	32	59
Branson School Bulls	59	59	57	57	55
The Urban School Varsity	33	33	60	60	58
Woodside High School Woodside	32	32	59	59	57

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Berkeley High School Varsity	59	59	57	57	55
Campolindo High School Cougars	57	57	55	55	53
Carmel High School Padres	56	56	54	54	52
College Park High School College Park	55	55	53	53	51
Coronado Islanders Islanders	54	54	52	52	50
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	53	53	51	51	49
Marin Catholic Wildcats	52	52	50	50	48
Mater Dei High School Monarchs	51	51	49	49	47
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	50	50	48	48	46
Monterey High School Varsity	49	49	47	47	45
Palo Alto High Varsity	48	48	46	46	44
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	47	47	45	45	43
Port of Los Angeles High School Varsity	45	45	43	43	41
Providence Santa Barbara Providence Santa Bar	44	44	42	42	40
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Varsity	46	46	44	44	42
Redwood High School Giants	43	43	41	41	39
Sage Hill School Lightning	42	42	40	40	38
Santa Catalina School Cougars	40	40	38	38	36
Santa Monica High School Varsity	39	39	37	37	35
SF University High School Red Devils	41	41	39	39	37
Archie Williams High School Varsity	38	38	36	36	34
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Varsity	37	37	35	35	33
Stevenson School Varsity 1	36	36	34	34	32
Stevenson School Varsity 2	35	35	33	33	60
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	34	34	32	32	59
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	33	33	60	60	58
Branson School Bulls	58	58	56	56	54
The Urban School Varsity	32	32	59	59	57
Woodside High School Woodside	60	60	58	58	56

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Archie Williams High School	Elsa Simenstad '22	Grace Glass '19
Varsity	Noelle Scheer '18	Cody Ocallahan '21
Berkeley High School	Max Rodman '18	Stuart Myers '17
Varsity	Lucien Canvinet '20	Rosie Ward '19
Branson School	Andrew Fisher '19	Emma Kami '19
Bulls	Isabel Rewick '19	Kamila Harting '18
Campolindo High School	Niko Vo '18	Derek Nelson '18
Cougars	Daniel Warner '18	Ian Churchill '19
Carmel High School	Dalton Muck '19	Muck Nathan '21
Padres	Graham Cash '19 [1-5]	No Show [1-2] Jack Hays '19 [3-5]
College Park High School	Zack Taylor '19	Jack Holden '22
College Park	Madeleine Henry '18	Pierce Yeary '20
Coronado Islanders	Brock Paquin '18	Amy Schafer '19
Islanders	Stewart Powell '17	Trey Summers '20
Marin Catholic	Carter Nestell '18 [1-5]	Caitlin Buono '19 [1-4] Henri Stephan '18 [5]
Wildcats	Keilah Stypulkoski '19	Miriam Rogers '19
Mater Dei High School	Caden Wheeler '17 [1-2, 5] Anthony Zorayan '18 [3-4]	Sarah Politiski '17 [1-2, 5]
Monarchs	Jeffrey Petersen '20	Jacob Nguyen '17
Monte Vista High School	Michael Lively '18 [1-5]	Josh Cole '18 [1-2, 5] Ethan Waite '18 [3-4]
Mustangs	Thomas Laskarzewski '18 [1-5]	Robert Laskarzewski '21 [1-4] Ethan Waite '18 [5]
Monterey High School	Gabriel Gargiulo '21	Reagan Dalton '21
Varsity	Finn Stout '20 [1-4] Simone Cremonese '21 [5]	Lily Robnett '21 [1-2] Pierce Nelson '21 [3-5]
Palo Alto High	Andrew Huang '18	Max Saparov '20
Varsity	Will Glasson '20	Charlotte Versavel '21
Palos Verdes High School	Evan Insley '19 [1-5]	Davis Dillenberg '19 [1-4] Alex Gou '19 [5]
Sea Kings	Matt Matich '20	Sophia Lopez '19
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Benjamin Louttit '18	Kenneth White '18
Varsity	Cyrus Khaleeli '20 [1-5]	Jordan Greenway '17 [1-2] Matthew Sun '20 [3-4] Jackson Hoover '20 [5]
Port of Los Angeles High School	Patrick Garrett '21	Daniel Velazquez '19
Varsity	Elizabeth Hermenegildo '19	James Sawyer '21
Providence Santa Barbara	Rick Eickert '17	Payne Donaldson '19
Providence Santa Bar	Jacob Pelto '17	Evan Boger '18
Redwood High School	Kaelin Stock '18	Liam Farese '18
Giants	Sarah Young '20 [1-5]	Kali Gibbs '18 [1-2] Gabe Marra '17 [3-5]
SF University High School	Lily Cunningham '17 [1-5]	Kai Hill '17 [1-4] Brian Kirz '18 [5]
Red Devils	Micherice Tao '19 [1-5]	Brian Kirz '18 [1-2] Graham Gerrity '17 [3-4] Kate Elkort '18 [5]
Sage Hill School	Isabelle Meegan '19 [1-5]	Dylan Strode '18 [1-4] Rowan Oliphant '20 [5]
Lightning	Darcy Chung '20 [1-4] Joshua Cheadle '19 [5]	Rowan Oliphant '20 [1-2] Ryan Simpson '19 [3-4] Dylan Strode '18 [5]
Santa Catalina School	Jessica Crump '21 [1-5]	Eleanor Sheetz '19 [1-4] Abigail Romero '21 [5]
Cougars	Camila Notholt '19 [1-5]	Abigail Romero '21 [1-4] Eleanor Sheetz '19 [5]
Santa Monica High School	Sam Weiler '17 [1-5]	Makeda Bulluck Floyd '18 [1-2] Josiah Polhemus '19 [3-5]
Varsity	Nicholas Jensen '20 [1-2, 5] Lola Rice '18 [3-4]	Casper Jensen '20 [1-2] Daniel Ramirez '17 [3-4] Makeda Bulluck Floyd '18 [5]
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Gabriella Schmidt '18 [1-4] Mackenzie Berwick '18 [5]	Evelyn Plam '19 [1-2, 5] Mackenzie Berwick '18 [3-4]
Varsity	William Bayliss '20 [1-5]	Sam Wu '22 [1-2, 5] Will Devine '22 [3-4]
Stevenson School	Ben Gersten '18	Naomi Dommermuth '18
Varsity 1	Vic Sahni '17	Coco Huang '18
Stevenson School	Stuart Henry '17	Marko Zaninovich '19
Varsity 2	Kay Du '18 [1-4] Susanna Yan '18 [5]	Jerry Li '18 [1-2] Taylor Lee '19 [3-4] Nikki Naquin '17 [5]
Tamalpais High School	Emma Figueredo '19	Emma Jones '18
Red Tailed Hawks	Griffin Chen '19 [1-2] Christian Rodriguez '18 [3-5]	Jacob Renneisen '18 [1-2]
The Bay School of San Francisco	William Hale '18 [1-2, 5] Sarah Cuyler '19 [3-4]	Reid Wishner '19 [1-4] Sarah Cuyler '19 [5]
Breakers	Alexander Holderness '17 [1-2, 5] Alex Pick '19 [3-4]	Aj Torres '19 [1-4] Alex Pick '19 [5]
The International School of San Francisco	Keelin Davis '17	Genna Corlett '17
Varsity	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1-4] Jade Greer '19 [5]	Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 [1-2, 5] Jade Greer '19 [3-4]
The Urban School	Cayley Crist '17 [1-5]	Anna Krylova '20 [1-2, 5] Dillan Srivastava '20 [3-4]
Varsity	Hannah Schrank '19 [1-5]	Eli Gordon '20 [1-4] Dillan Srivastava '20 [5]
Woodside High School	Joseph Politi '18	Jessica O'Neill '19
Woodside	Judith Politi '21	Tommy Ashworth '21

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1012.1 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.2 kn

avg · max 4.5 kn

Gusts to 11.9 kn

From W (267°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1012.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · W 10 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.20 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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